Ken Griffin opened the week by telling a Citadel conference that investors are “almost certainly” in an AI bubble. By Friday, the market had spent five sessions testing that idea from every side: Meta disclosed it may need to raise hundreds of billions of dollars, chip stocks gave up their rebound, hedge funds had their worst stretch in years, and Brent crude closed at its highest level since April.
The weekly index changes were small. The S&P 500 closed the week −0.47%, the Nasdaq Composite −0.71% and the Nasdaq 100 −0.79%, while the Dow finished at +0.41% and the Russell 2000 at +2.00%. Underneath, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index finished −3.21% for the week and −17.9% over three weeks, and 329 of the 503 S&P 500 members rose. This recap takes the AI bubble question apart with the data: where returns came from, who is getting paid for the spending, where the memory cycle stands, what the hedge fund losses looked like, and whether Korea’s crash says anything about what comes next.
Weekly Index Performance
Weekly Cross-Asset Snapshot
The Week in Five-Minute Bars
Five sessions of futures and Treasury prices show how the week turned. The chart below runs from Sunday evening to Friday’s close and marks the news that moved prices.
Nasdaq futures, S&P futures, oil and the 10-year yield, Oct 19-23
Change from the Oct 16 close (left axis) and 10-year Treasury yield (right axis), Eastern time
Five-minute bars from Sunday evening to Friday 5 p.m. ET. Futures are front-month continuous contracts. The 10-year yield is estimated from 10-year note futures using their fit to the Cboe 10-year yield index during U.S. hours (about 15.6 basis points per point of futures price), so overnight moves are shown too.
View the data table
| Time (ET) | Nasdaq 100 futures | S&P 500 futures | WTI crude (Dec) | 10-year yield (est.) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 16:55 ET | −0.89% | −0.39% | +4.43% | 4.988% |
| Fri 16:50 ET | −0.72% | −0.39% | +4.24% | 4.993% |
| Fri 16:20 ET | −0.70% | −0.44% | +4.20% | 4.998% |
| Fri 15:50 ET | −0.88% | −0.54% | +4.64% | 5.000% |
| Fri 15:20 ET | −0.81% | −0.46% | +4.51% | 4.993% |
| Fri 14:50 ET | −0.76% | −0.46% | +4.40% | 4.988% |
| Fri 14:20 ET | −0.71% | −0.44% | +4.30% | 4.988% |
| Fri 13:50 ET | −0.71% | −0.45% | +4.01% | 4.983% |
| Fri 13:20 ET | −0.78% | −0.52% | +3.97% | 4.993% |
| Fri 12:50 ET | −0.59% | −0.34% | +3.82% | 4.991% |
| Fri 12:20 ET | −0.56% | −0.31% | +4.09% | 4.986% |
| Fri 11:50 ET | −0.36% | −0.17% | +3.94% | 4.995% |
| Fri 11:20 ET | −0.44% | −0.16% | +3.00% | 4.993% |
| Fri 10:50 ET | −0.30% | −0.18% | +3.31% | 4.993% |
| Fri 10:20 ET | −0.87% | −0.63% | +3.23% | 4.988% |
| Fri 09:50 ET | −0.88% | −0.48% | +3.34% | 4.983% |
| Fri 09:20 ET | −1.09% | −0.44% | +2.49% | 4.969% |
| Fri 08:50 ET | −1.20% | −0.52% | +2.25% | 4.964% |
| Fri 08:20 ET | −0.97% | −0.32% | +2.32% | 4.988% |
| Fri 07:50 ET | −0.81% | −0.18% | +1.67% | 4.995% |
| Fri 07:20 ET | −0.93% | −0.23% | +1.94% | 5.003% |
| Fri 06:50 ET | −0.95% | −0.29% | +2.10% | 4.988% |
| Fri 06:20 ET | −0.82% | −0.20% | +2.00% | 4.978% |
| Fri 05:50 ET | −0.88% | −0.22% | +2.06% | 4.974% |
| Fri 05:20 ET | −0.74% | −0.13% | +2.00% | 4.971% |
| Fri 04:50 ET | −0.51% | +0.01% | +1.20% | 4.978% |
| Fri 04:20 ET | −0.38% | +0.09% | +1.46% | 4.986% |
| Fri 03:50 ET | −0.65% | −0.06% | +1.75% | 4.974% |
| Fri 03:20 ET | −0.62% | −0.04% | +1.70% | 4.969% |
| Fri 02:50 ET | −0.61% | +0.02% | +1.71% | 4.981% |
| Fri 02:20 ET | −0.52% | +0.01% | +1.75% | 4.974% |
| Fri 01:50 ET | −0.78% | −0.09% | +1.60% | 4.966% |
| Fri 01:20 ET | −0.84% | −0.10% | +1.35% | 4.959% |
| Fri 00:50 ET | −0.84% | −0.11% | +1.26% | 4.966% |
| Fri 00:20 ET | −0.78% | −0.07% | +1.02% | 4.961% |
| Thu 23:50 ET | −0.70% | −0.01% | +0.99% | 4.961% |
| Thu 23:20 ET | −0.78% | −0.04% | +1.14% | 4.966% |
| Thu 22:50 ET | −0.63% | +0.02% | +0.91% | 4.964% |
| Thu 22:20 ET | −0.77% | −0.08% | +1.33% | 4.961% |
| Thu 21:50 ET | −0.81% | −0.11% | +1.30% | 4.969% |
| Thu 21:20 ET | −0.84% | −0.08% | +0.88% | 4.964% |
| Thu 20:50 ET | −0.70% | +0.08% | +0.09% | 4.961% |
| Thu 20:20 ET | −1.03% | −0.04% | +0.20% | 4.947% |
| Thu 19:50 ET | −1.00% | +0.05% | +0.28% | 4.961% |
| Thu 19:20 ET | −0.99% | +0.05% | +0.28% | 4.961% |
| Thu 18:45 ET | −0.90% | +0.07% | −0.07% | 4.954% |
| Thu 18:15 ET | −0.87% | +0.08% | −0.02% | 4.959% |
| Thu 16:45 ET | −1.01% | 0.00% | +0.07% | 4.961% |
| Thu 16:15 ET | −0.79% | +0.06% | +0.18% | 4.971% |
| Thu 15:45 ET | −1.05% | −0.20% | +0.23% | 4.964% |
| Thu 15:15 ET | −0.92% | −0.15% | +0.41% | 4.952% |
| Thu 14:45 ET | −0.95% | −0.22% | +0.33% | 4.952% |
| Thu 14:15 ET | −0.63% | −0.04% | +0.20% | 4.954% |
| Thu 13:45 ET | −0.65% | −0.10% | +0.84% | 4.959% |
| Thu 13:15 ET | −0.58% | −0.10% | +0.25% | 4.964% |
| Thu 12:45 ET | −0.72% | −0.16% | −0.09% | 4.969% |
| Thu 12:15 ET | −0.05% | +0.22% | −0.31% | 4.995% |
| Thu 11:45 ET | −0.36% | −0.05% | −0.68% | 4.998% |
| Thu 11:15 ET | −0.28% | +0.01% | −0.80% | 5.010% |
| Thu 10:45 ET | −0.33% | −0.15% | −0.76% | 5.012% |
| Thu 10:15 ET | +0.26% | +0.24% | −0.18% | 5.029% |
| Thu 09:45 ET | +0.41% | +0.33% | −0.10% | 5.034% |
| Thu 09:15 ET | +0.32% | +0.27% | +0.69% | 5.039% |
| Thu 08:45 ET | +0.53% | +0.34% | +0.33% | 5.042% |
| Thu 08:15 ET | +0.50% | +0.31% | +0.35% | 5.044% |
| Thu 07:45 ET | +0.40% | +0.26% | +0.48% | 5.049% |
| Thu 07:15 ET | +0.37% | +0.21% | +0.11% | 5.039% |
| Thu 06:45 ET | +0.51% | +0.30% | +0.15% | 5.068% |
| Thu 06:15 ET | +0.29% | +0.21% | +0.47% | 5.076% |
| Thu 05:45 ET | +0.23% | +0.15% | +0.69% | 5.071% |
| Thu 05:15 ET | +0.26% | +0.20% | +0.18% | 5.076% |
| Thu 04:45 ET | +0.39% | +0.28% | +0.79% | 5.088% |
| Thu 04:15 ET | +0.27% | +0.21% | +0.80% | 5.085% |
| Thu 03:45 ET | +0.32% | +0.21% | +0.83% | 5.090% |
| Thu 03:15 ET | +0.42% | +0.29% | +0.51% | 5.083% |
| Thu 02:45 ET | +0.50% | +0.38% | +0.22% | 5.083% |
| Thu 02:15 ET | +0.53% | +0.45% | +0.25% | 5.098% |
| Thu 01:45 ET | +0.47% | +0.40% | +0.01% | 5.095% |
| Thu 01:15 ET | +0.73% | +0.54% | −0.06% | 5.098% |
| Thu 00:45 ET | +0.75% | +0.55% | −0.38% | 5.095% |
| Thu 00:15 ET | +0.79% | +0.59% | −0.44% | 5.093% |
| Wed 23:45 ET | +0.87% | +0.64% | −0.73% | 5.093% |
| Wed 23:15 ET | +0.95% | +0.69% | −0.66% | 5.090% |
| Wed 22:45 ET | +1.05% | +0.75% | −0.82% | 5.098% |
| Wed 22:15 ET | +1.07% | +0.72% | −0.83% | 5.100% |
| Wed 21:45 ET | +1.27% | +0.82% | −0.88% | 5.112% |
| Wed 21:15 ET | +1.34% | +0.81% | −0.99% | 5.117% |
| Wed 20:45 ET | +1.49% | +0.86% | −1.01% | 5.119% |
| Wed 20:15 ET | +1.48% | +0.87% | −1.00% | 5.122% |
| Wed 19:45 ET | +1.36% | +0.75% | −1.09% | 5.110% |
| Wed 19:15 ET | +1.47% | +0.85% | −1.10% | 5.119% |
| Wed 18:40 ET | +1.57% | +0.93% | −1.08% | 5.122% |
| Wed 18:10 ET | +1.78% | +1.04% | −1.28% | 5.119% |
| Wed 16:40 ET | +2.19% | +1.30% | −1.54% | 5.127% |
| Wed 16:10 ET | +1.99% | +1.26% | −1.26% | 5.129% |
| Wed 15:40 ET | +2.19% | +1.24% | −1.48% | 5.132% |
| Wed 15:10 ET | +1.94% | +1.04% | −0.97% | 5.149% |
| Wed 14:40 ET | +2.35% | +1.38% | −1.91% | 5.117% |
| Wed 14:10 ET | +2.32% | +1.36% | −1.94% | 5.117% |
| Wed 13:40 ET | +2.34% | +1.35% | −1.98% | 5.112% |
| Wed 13:10 ET | +2.41% | +1.34% | −2.33% | 5.115% |
| Wed 12:40 ET | +2.33% | +1.24% | −2.36% | 5.110% |
| Wed 12:10 ET | +2.19% | +1.17% | −1.76% | 5.117% |
| Wed 11:40 ET | +2.22% | +1.17% | −1.81% | 5.117% |
| Wed 11:10 ET | +2.03% | +1.03% | −1.21% | 5.122% |
| Wed 10:40 ET | +1.72% | +0.86% | −1.25% | 5.107% |
| Wed 10:10 ET | +1.45% | +0.68% | −1.46% | 5.100% |
| Wed 09:40 ET | +1.50% | +0.86% | −1.87% | 5.083% |
| Wed 09:10 ET | +1.61% | +0.99% | −1.66% | 5.100% |
| Wed 08:40 ET | +1.57% | +0.95% | −1.12% | 5.100% |
| Wed 08:10 ET | +1.59% | +0.91% | −0.67% | 5.098% |
| Wed 07:40 ET | +1.66% | +0.93% | −0.42% | 5.107% |
| Wed 07:10 ET | +1.57% | +0.91% | +0.23% | 5.119% |
| Wed 06:40 ET | +1.52% | +0.88% | +0.77% | 5.122% |
| Wed 06:10 ET | +1.24% | +0.75% | +1.23% | 5.137% |
| Wed 05:40 ET | +1.52% | +0.92% | +0.22% | 5.117% |
| Wed 05:10 ET | +1.39% | +0.80% | −0.08% | 5.117% |
| Wed 04:40 ET | +1.46% | +0.80% | −0.10% | 5.122% |
| Wed 04:10 ET | +1.72% | +0.92% | −0.68% | 5.117% |
| Wed 03:40 ET | +1.74% | +0.91% | −0.44% | 5.115% |
| Wed 03:10 ET | +1.64% | +0.88% | −0.19% | 5.127% |
| Wed 02:40 ET | +1.55% | +0.90% | +0.24% | 5.124% |
| Wed 02:10 ET | +1.58% | +0.91% | +0.19% | 5.129% |
| Wed 01:40 ET | +1.60% | +0.94% | +0.15% | 5.129% |
| Wed 01:10 ET | +1.66% | +0.97% | −0.11% | 5.119% |
| Wed 00:40 ET | +1.76% | +0.98% | −0.09% | 5.122% |
| Wed 00:10 ET | +1.78% | +0.99% | +0.11% | 5.117% |
| Tue 23:40 ET | +1.93% | +1.03% | +0.13% | 5.122% |
| Tue 23:10 ET | +2.05% | +1.06% | +0.23% | 5.124% |
| Tue 22:40 ET | +2.06% | +1.02% | +0.06% | 5.127% |
| Tue 22:10 ET | +2.01% | +0.99% | +0.12% | 5.129% |
| Tue 21:40 ET | +1.99% | +1.00% | −0.13% | 5.127% |
| Tue 21:10 ET | +1.67% | +0.90% | −0.21% | 5.127% |
| Tue 20:40 ET | +2.10% | +1.05% | −0.58% | 5.129% |
| Tue 20:10 ET | +1.90% | +0.96% | −0.60% | 5.129% |
| Tue 19:40 ET | +1.71% | +0.92% | −0.66% | 5.127% |
| Tue 19:10 ET | +1.77% | +0.95% | −0.83% | 5.129% |
| Tue 18:40 ET | +1.82% | +0.97% | −0.87% | 5.132% |
| Tue 18:10 ET | +1.93% | +1.06% | −0.92% | 5.127% |
| Tue 16:40 ET | +1.31% | +0.89% | −0.82% | 5.112% |
| Tue 16:10 ET | +1.22% | +0.81% | −1.02% | 5.115% |
| Tue 15:40 ET | +1.06% | +0.64% | −0.84% | 5.117% |
| Tue 15:10 ET | +1.10% | +0.66% | −0.94% | 5.119% |
| Tue 14:40 ET | +1.00% | +0.60% | −1.10% | 5.119% |
| Tue 14:10 ET | +1.33% | +0.81% | −1.52% | 5.124% |
| Tue 13:40 ET | +1.27% | +0.80% | −1.13% | 5.119% |
| Tue 13:10 ET | +1.16% | +0.68% | −0.95% | 5.132% |
| Tue 12:40 ET | +1.28% | +0.76% | −1.10% | 5.127% |
| Tue 12:10 ET | +1.26% | +0.75% | −1.18% | 5.127% |
| Tue 11:40 ET | +1.28% | +0.79% | −1.60% | 5.107% |
| Tue 11:10 ET | +1.24% | +0.70% | −1.93% | 5.105% |
| Tue 10:40 ET | +1.61% | +1.05% | −3.41% | 5.083% |
| Tue 10:10 ET | +1.21% | +0.74% | −1.29% | 5.102% |
| Tue 09:40 ET | +0.09% | +0.13% | −0.25% | 5.095% |
| Tue 09:10 ET | +0.78% | +0.29% | +0.80% | 5.115% |
| Tue 08:40 ET | +0.75% | +0.27% | +0.26% | 5.098% |
| Tue 08:10 ET | +0.42% | +0.14% | +1.56% | 5.110% |
| Tue 07:40 ET | +0.59% | +0.27% | +2.02% | 5.127% |
| Tue 07:10 ET | +0.62% | +0.27% | +1.47% | 5.122% |
| Tue 06:40 ET | +0.69% | +0.30% | +1.67% | 5.124% |
| Tue 06:10 ET | +0.85% | +0.40% | +1.64% | 5.122% |
| Tue 05:40 ET | +0.71% | +0.33% | +1.74% | 5.124% |
| Tue 05:10 ET | +0.54% | +0.25% | +1.48% | 5.110% |
| Tue 04:40 ET | +1.00% | +0.50% | +0.85% | 5.115% |
| Tue 04:10 ET | +0.84% | +0.43% | +0.33% | 5.115% |
| Tue 03:40 ET | +0.83% | +0.42% | +0.26% | 5.119% |
| Tue 03:10 ET | +1.00% | +0.52% | +0.13% | 5.119% |
| Tue 02:40 ET | +1.12% | +0.57% | −0.82% | 5.112% |
| Tue 02:10 ET | +0.73% | +0.38% | +0.35% | 5.122% |
| Tue 01:40 ET | +0.86% | +0.40% | −0.23% | 5.112% |
| Tue 01:10 ET | +0.88% | +0.42% | −0.18% | 5.115% |
| Tue 00:40 ET | +0.97% | +0.47% | −0.39% | 5.117% |
| Tue 00:10 ET | +1.07% | +0.53% | −0.48% | 5.122% |
| Mon 23:40 ET | +1.26% | +0.59% | −0.42% | 5.124% |
| Mon 23:10 ET | +1.32% | +0.62% | −0.13% | 5.132% |
| Mon 22:40 ET | +1.20% | +0.57% | −0.40% | 5.124% |
| Mon 22:10 ET | +1.11% | +0.55% | −0.51% | 5.124% |
| Mon 21:40 ET | +1.04% | +0.53% | −0.27% | 5.124% |
| Mon 21:10 ET | +0.72% | +0.31% | −0.23% | 5.124% |
| Mon 20:40 ET | +0.97% | +0.45% | −0.61% | 5.132% |
| Mon 20:10 ET | +1.04% | +0.45% | −0.87% | 5.139% |
| Mon 19:40 ET | +1.31% | +0.54% | −0.82% | 5.141% |
| Mon 19:10 ET | +1.36% | +0.54% | −0.79% | 5.141% |
| Mon 18:40 ET | +1.31% | +0.53% | −0.79% | 5.134% |
| Mon 18:10 ET | +1.30% | +0.53% | −0.79% | 5.137% |
| Mon 16:40 ET | +1.23% | +0.47% | −0.60% | 5.141% |
| Mon 16:10 ET | +1.23% | +0.45% | −0.59% | 5.134% |
| Mon 15:40 ET | +1.48% | +0.60% | −0.60% | 5.141% |
| Mon 15:10 ET | +1.34% | +0.56% | −0.69% | 5.134% |
| Mon 14:40 ET | +1.30% | +0.54% | −0.59% | 5.124% |
| Mon 14:10 ET | +1.31% | +0.56% | +0.01% | 5.134% |
| Mon 13:40 ET | +1.32% | +0.51% | +0.10% | 5.139% |
| Mon 13:10 ET | +1.40% | +0.53% | +0.19% | 5.146% |
| Mon 12:40 ET | +1.62% | +0.62% | −0.52% | 5.144% |
| Mon 12:10 ET | +1.75% | +0.68% | −0.42% | 5.144% |
| Mon 11:40 ET | +1.99% | +0.85% | −1.05% | 5.134% |
| Mon 11:10 ET | +1.68% | +0.68% | −1.54% | 5.124% |
| Mon 10:40 ET | +1.46% | +0.52% | −1.21% | 5.122% |
| Mon 10:10 ET | +1.46% | +0.65% | −1.40% | 5.105% |
| Mon 09:40 ET | +1.28% | +0.46% | −1.27% | 5.102% |
| Mon 09:10 ET | +1.35% | +0.51% | −1.54% | 5.098% |
| Mon 08:40 ET | +1.27% | +0.46% | −1.03% | 5.100% |
| Mon 08:10 ET | +1.31% | +0.53% | −1.25% | 5.090% |
| Mon 07:40 ET | +1.10% | +0.42% | −0.89% | 5.073% |
| Mon 07:10 ET | +1.08% | +0.50% | −0.71% | 5.078% |
| Mon 06:40 ET | +1.22% | +0.58% | −0.98% | 5.076% |
| Mon 06:10 ET | +1.16% | +0.54% | −0.64% | 5.078% |
| Mon 05:40 ET | +1.11% | +0.53% | −0.69% | 5.083% |
| Mon 05:10 ET | +1.07% | +0.49% | −1.10% | 5.081% |
| Mon 04:40 ET | +1.13% | +0.56% | −1.78% | 5.078% |
| Mon 04:10 ET | +1.12% | +0.57% | −2.22% | 5.071% |
| Mon 03:40 ET | +1.29% | +0.65% | −2.18% | 5.071% |
| Mon 03:10 ET | +1.24% | +0.66% | −2.09% | 5.064% |
| Mon 02:40 ET | +1.36% | +0.72% | −2.13% | 5.066% |
| Mon 02:10 ET | +1.35% | +0.73% | −1.79% | 5.071% |
| Mon 01:40 ET | +1.34% | +0.80% | −1.73% | 5.064% |
| Mon 01:10 ET | +1.35% | +0.81% | −1.65% | 5.064% |
| Mon 00:40 ET | +1.34% | +0.78% | −1.60% | 5.059% |
| Mon 00:10 ET | +1.35% | +0.83% | −1.62% | 5.061% |
| Sun 23:40 ET | +1.35% | +0.82% | −1.66% | 5.061% |
| Sun 23:10 ET | +1.26% | +0.79% | −1.57% | 5.056% |
| Sun 22:40 ET | +1.22% | +0.71% | −1.48% | 5.059% |
| Sun 22:10 ET | +1.15% | +0.69% | −1.59% | 5.056% |
| Sun 21:40 ET | +1.05% | +0.57% | −1.46% | 5.064% |
| Sun 21:10 ET | +1.04% | +0.52% | −1.08% | 5.064% |
| Sun 20:40 ET | +0.91% | +0.51% | −1.49% | 5.064% |
| Sun 20:10 ET | +0.94% | +0.55% | −1.45% | 5.064% |
| Sun 19:40 ET | +0.87% | +0.45% | −1.21% | 5.059% |
| Sun 19:10 ET | +0.73% | +0.38% | −0.93% | 5.056% |
| Sun 18:40 ET | +0.67% | +0.31% | −0.82% | 5.054% |
| Sun 18:10 ET | +0.48% | +0.25% | −0.80% | 5.056% |
The first half of the week belonged to the rebound. By Wednesday afternoon, Nasdaq 100 futures stood about 2% above the previous Friday's close, led by the memory makers and chip designers that had been sold the week before. Tuesday's sharpest move came in oil: WTI dropped more than 2% in about 15 minutes around 10:20 a.m. ET on an unconfirmed report of a proposal to revive U.S.-Iran talks, then recovered as other outlets disputed it, as covered in Tuesday's recap. SpaceX's first profitable quarter as a public company, released that evening, carried AI hardware stocks higher on Wednesday.
The turn came Wednesday night. Meta's results looked fine, but the information statement filed alongside them said management had shown the board forecasts requiring "hundreds of billions of dollars" of outside funding, and Nasdaq 100 futures slid through the Asian session. By Thursday's open they were about 1.6% below Wednesday's close. The 10-year yield fell with them, first on the Meta news overnight, then during European trading while French bonds sold off, and most of all during U.S. hours as the selling spread through chip stocks. It finished the day 19 basis points lower, its largest one-day drop in three and a half years.
Friday added a geopolitical leg. At 12:55 p.m. ET, a Reuters report that Iran has plans to cut undersea cables in the Gulf if the U.S. and Israel attack again pushed futures to the day's lows, and WTI kept climbing into the close. Brent settled at $116.72, a +6.2% week and its third straight weekly gain.
Griffin vs. Blackstone: The AI Bubble Debate
Griffin's argument was not that AI is a fad. Speaking at Citadel's Future of Global Markets conference on Tuesday, he said radical economic transformations usually come with a bubble, and that the companies on the other side of it become market leaders for decades, 24/7 Wall St. reported. He compared today to the telecom boom of 2000, when companies laid far more fiber-optic cable than the market needed and the price of bandwidth collapsed, and likened GPUs to airline seats: once built, an empty one earns nothing, so prices can fall fast when supply runs ahead of demand, according to Decrypt.
Blackstone, which owns data center operators QTS and AirTrunk, sees the opposite problem. On the firm's earnings call on Thursday, Chief Executive Stephen Schwarzman said demand for computing is accelerating and supply is scarce. "Seldom in my career have I seen such a supply-constrained market of this scale," he said. President Jon Gray told CNBC he does not see a bubble and that, unlike the dot-com era, today's build-out is backed by real demand from people and businesses, according to a summary of the interview. Blackstone's stock ended the week at +10.7%.
Both can be right, because they are talking about different things. Schwarzman is describing today's shortage of power, buildings and chips. Griffin is describing what happens after the shortage, when the capacity being financed now comes online. The fiber comparison holds up on that point. Telecom companies in 1999 also faced real demand; the problem was that everyone built for the same demand at the same time.
Griffin went further in a longer interview with Bloomberg released the same week.
He described the recent selloff in chip and AI stocks as the market moving from buying everything in the AI supply chain to separating winners from losers. He named two risks for GPUs in particular. The first is the dark-fiber problem: a chip that is already built costs little to run, so if supply ever exceeds demand, rental prices can collapse. The second is useful life. GPUs that are five or six years old still earn good returns today, but whether chips seven to nine years old will is an open question, and that assumption sits underneath the depreciation schedules of every company in this build-out. He also said corporate customers have started separating the tasks that need the most expensive models from those that cheaper open-source models can handle, so the AI labs will keep their pricing power only if their models become indispensable. The thread running through the interview is that a technology's bright future and the share prices of the companies paying for it are separate questions.
The first signs of Griffin's price problem are already visible in one corner of the market. The cost of processing a million AI tokens fell to 94 cents as of Wednesday from more than $2 in May, according to Silicon Data's LLM Token Expenditure Index, the Journal reported, a sign that cheaper models are pushing prices down. What is not visible is a valuation bubble in the usual sense, as the next section shows.
Where Sector Returns Came From: Earnings vs. Valuation
A bubble normally means prices rising faster than earnings. This year the opposite happened in technology. Splitting each sector's price change into the change in forward 12-month earnings estimates and the change in the price-to-earnings multiple, using FactSet's published sector P/E ratios, shows tech earnings estimates at +69.6% since early January and the sector's multiple at −25.5%. The Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK) returned +26.4% over that period, far less than the change in its earnings estimates.
Where this year's sector returns came from
Price change since Jan 8 split into forward earnings growth and the change in the P/E multiple
Price change uses the sector SPDR ETFs (SPY for the S&P 500) to Oct 22, the price date of FactSet's Oct 23 report. Forward EPS change is implied: (1 + price change) ÷ (1 + P/E change) − 1. The three bars are linked by multiplication, so they don't add up exactly.
View the data table
| Sector | Price change | Forward EPS change | P/E change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Comm. Services | −8.6% | +18.2% | −22.7% |
| Consumer Disc. | −6.4% | +17.3% | −20.2% |
| Financials | +1.3% | +14.4% | −11.4% |
| Utilities | +2.1% | +7.0% | −4.6% |
| Industrials | +4.1% | +14.3% | −8.9% |
| Real Estate | +5.1% | +4.5% | +0.6% |
| Materials | +8.8% | +23.9% | −12.2% |
| S&P 500 | +10.8% | +31.5% | −15.8% |
| Health Care | +14.7% | +8.3% | +5.9% |
| Consumer Staples | +14.7% | +2.9% | +11.5% |
| Info. Technology | +26.4% | +69.6% | −25.5% |
| Energy | +45.2% | +85.4% | −21.7% |
Energy followed the same pattern on a different driver: forward earnings +85.4% on higher oil prices, a multiple −21.7%, and a price change of +45.2%. Consumer staples and health care are the exceptions. Staples returned +14.7% with earnings estimates up only about 3%, so nearly all of the move came from a higher multiple. Health care's +14.7% was split roughly evenly between higher estimates and a higher multiple.
Since the end of June the split is sharper. Tech's forward earnings estimates moved another +14.8% and its P/E −14.4%, leaving the sector ETF at −1.8%. Staples again owed almost its entire gain to a higher multiple.
Since the end of June
Price change since Jul 1 split into forward earnings growth and the change in the P/E multiple
Price change uses the sector SPDR ETFs (SPY for the S&P 500) to Oct 22, the price date of FactSet's Oct 23 report. Forward EPS change is implied: (1 + price change) ÷ (1 + P/E change) − 1. The three bars are linked by multiplication, so they don't add up exactly.
View the data table
| Sector | Price change | Forward EPS change | P/E change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Industrials | −9.1% | +5.5% | −13.8% |
| Utilities | −4.2% | +2.1% | −6.2% |
| Real Estate | −3.8% | +1.2% | −4.9% |
| Consumer Disc. | −2.6% | +7.3% | −9.2% |
| Comm. Services | −2.1% | +10.8% | −11.7% |
| Info. Technology | −1.8% | +14.8% | −14.4% |
| Materials | +1.3% | +2.5% | −1.1% |
| S&P 500 | +2.4% | +11.8% | −8.3% |
| Financials | +3.4% | +6.9% | −3.3% |
| Consumer Staples | +8.0% | +0.1% | +7.9% |
| Health Care | +13.6% | +6.1% | +7.1% |
| Energy | +27.9% | +22.0% | +4.8% |
Compared with their own history, the sectors line up in a way that cuts against the bubble story. Technology trades at 19.6 times forward earnings, 23% below its five-year average and 15% below its 10-year average, according to FactSet. The S&P 500 as a whole is at 18.7 times, below both its five-year average of 19.8 and its 10-year average of 19.1. The expensive sectors are the defensive ones: health care at 19.7 times is 13% above its five-year average, and consumer staples at 23.3 times is 12% above.
Today's sector valuations against their own history
Forward 12-month P/E, percent above or below the 5-year and 10-year averages
Forward P/E as of Oct 22 close; 5- and 10-year averages as published by FactSet.
View the data table
| Sector | vs. 10-year average | vs. 5-year average |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | +19.3% | +3.2% |
| Health Care | +18.7% | +13.2% |
| Consumer Staples | +15.9% | +11.5% |
| Industrials | +12.0% | +6.7% |
| Financials | +6.5% | +1.4% |
| Comm. Services | −1.1% | −4.9% |
| S&P 500 | −2.1% | −5.6% |
| Materials | −2.8% | −3.4% |
| Real Estate | −7.0% | −3.9% |
| Consumer Disc. | −7.1% | −8.8% |
| Utilities | −7.2% | −7.2% |
| Info. Technology | −15.2% | −23.1% |
The market is not paying bubble prices for AI earnings. It is refusing to believe they will last. A P/E that falls while estimates rise is how investors price a cyclical peak: memory prices, data center orders and AI capital budgets are all at records, and the market is applying a discount to earnings it thinks will shrink once the spending slows. That is a different risk from 2000. Then, the danger was that earnings would never arrive. Now, the danger is that the earnings are real but borrowed from the future.
The table also explains Friday's market. Money leaving tech over the past three weeks went into the sectors that were already the most expensive relative to history, and those sectors are the most exposed to an oil shock through fuel, freight and consumer spending. When Brent jumped on Friday, staples were the worst-performing sector.
Tech Stocks' Three-Week Slide
For anyone trading Nasdaq futures, the index has understated the damage. Since Oct 2, the Nasdaq 100 is −6.0% and the S&P 500 −1.3%, while the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) is −16.4% and the equal-weight S&P 500 is +3.3%. Energy is +10.4%.
Three weeks after the rotation began
Price change, Oct 2 to Oct 23 close (this week in grey)
Closing prices, price only.
View the data table
| Fund / index | Oct 2 → Oct 23 | This week |
|---|---|---|
| Semiconductors (SMH) | −16.4% | −2.3% |
| Technology (XLK) | −8.3% | −0.1% |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | −6.0% | −0.8% |
| Large growth (IWF) | −5.9% | −1.5% |
| Communication (XLC) | −4.4% | −4.4% |
| Industrials (XLI) | −3.1% | −1.9% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | −1.3% | −0.4% |
| Russell 2000 | −2.0% | +2.0% |
| Dow industrials | +2.0% | +0.4% |
| Large value (IWD) | +3.2% | +0.7% |
| Equal weight (RSP) | +3.2% | +1.1% |
| Health care (XLV) | +7.9% | +1.4% |
| Staples (XLP) | +9.6% | +0.7% |
| Energy (XLE) | +10.4% | +1.6% |
Inside tech, the spread is wider still. Over the same three weeks, Lam Research is −33.8%, Teradyne −31.2%, Applied Materials −30.2% and KLA −29.6%, while Nvidia is −9.8% and Broadcom −9.4%. Among the AI infrastructure names, IREN is −40.4%, CoreWeave −39.5%, Nebius −34.6% and Bloom Energy −33.2%. Apple +4.2% and Microsoft +1.4% are higher, and those two stocks alone make up about an eighth of the S&P 500's value.
The pattern is consistent with the earnings-versus-valuation split. The selling has been heaviest in companies whose profits depend on other companies' capital budgets: chip equipment, memory, servers, power gear and the debt-funded neoclouds. The companies that pay for the spending out of large existing cash flows, like Apple and Microsoft, have held up. Software, which sells to the same customers but needs little capital, has risen: ServiceNow is +18.3% over three weeks and Adobe +11.0%. For index traders, a Nasdaq 100 down 6% with its chip and infrastructure components down 20% to 40% means the index has been held up by a handful of megacaps. If those megacaps disappoint next week, there is little left underneath to cushion the index.
The Hedge Fund Squeeze, Measured
Thursday showed what crowding looks like from the inside. The S&P 500 closed −1.21% and the Nasdaq 100 −2.90%, yet 336 of the index's 503 members rose. For hedge funds, that was the worst possible split: their largest long positions were in the AI stocks that fell, and many of their short positions were in the stocks that rose.
Goldman Sachs' prime brokerage data put a number on it. All three of the main hedge fund strategies it tracks, fundamental long-short, systematic and multi-strategy, lost more than 1% on Thursday, the first such day since the pandemic, Reuters reported. "If last Thursday felt bad, today has been worse," the prime brokerage team wrote. Goldman's pair of its hedge fund VIP basket against the most-shorted stocks lost about 4.2% in one session, its worst day since August 2011, bringing its October loss to 10.4%, according to a Goldman trading note quoted by the newsletter The Dark Side of the Boom. Hedge funds' short positions were near a five-year high, and short leverage in Goldman's prime book had reached the 99th percentile of its five-year range, 24/7 Wall St. reported. Jefferies' trading desk said the week to Oct 16 was its most heavily sell-skewed week in tech in more than five years, with $7.5 billion of net selling, more than during the DeepSeek selloff in January 2025, according to Yahoo Finance.
Goldman's basket data is private, but a public proxy tells the same story. The Goldman Sachs Hedge Industry VIP ETF (GVIP) holds the long side of the VIP basket. Subtracting the return of the equal-weight S&P 500 ETF (RSP) removes the market's overall move and leaves the cost of crowding. On Thursday, GVIP lagged RSP by 4.02 percentage points, the fourth-worst day since the ETF began trading in November 2016.
Worst days for hedge funds' favorite stocks versus the average stock
Daily return of the Goldman Sachs Hedge Industry VIP ETF (GVIP) minus the equal-weight S&P 500 ETF (RSP), since Nov 2016
GVIP holds the long side of Goldman's hedge fund VIP basket, the 50 stocks that appear most often among hedge funds' top holdings. Subtracting the equal-weight S&P 500 strips out the market's overall move and leaves the cost of crowding. Goldman's own measure pairs the VIP basket against the most-shorted stocks and is not public.
View the data table
| Day | GVIP minus RSP | GVIP alone |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 23, 2026 (KOSPI −10%) | −5.67 pts | −6.01% |
| Nov 9, 2020 (vaccine rotation) | −4.89 pts | −0.60% |
| Jan 27, 2025 (DeepSeek) | −4.57 pts | −4.50% |
| Oct 22, 2026 (Meta filing) | −4.02 pts | −3.29% |
| Feb 4, 2026 | −4.00 pts | −3.12% |
| Jul 16, 2026 | −3.53 pts | −2.55% |
| Jul 24, 2026 | −3.19 pts | −2.42% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | −3.09 pts | −4.51% |
| Mar 6, 2025 | −3.05 pts | −4.16% |
| Jul 2, 2026 | −3.02 pts | −2.32% |
The ranking says as much about this year as about Thursday. Seven of the 10 worst days on this measure came in 2026. The worst of all was June 23, the day South Korea's KOSPI fell 10%. The others include the November 2020 vaccine rotation and the DeepSeek selloff. Crowding in AI stocks has become a global trade, and when it unwinds, it unwinds everywhere at once.
For October as a whole, GVIP is −6.2% and RSP +4.1%, a gap of 10.3 percentage points. That is almost exactly the 10.4% October loss Goldman reported for its own long-short pair.
October: hedge funds' favorites against the average stock
Cumulative return since Sept 30, GVIP vs. RSP
Closing prices, price only. Sept 30 = 0.
View the data table
| Close | Hedge fund VIP (GVIP) | Equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP) |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 23 | −6.24% | +4.10% |
| Oct 22 | −5.75% | +4.90% |
| Oct 21 | −2.54% | +4.14% |
| Oct 20 | −3.35% | +3.77% |
| Oct 19 | −3.62% | +2.59% |
| Oct 16 | −4.19% | +2.92% |
| Oct 15 | −1.78% | +3.36% |
| Oct 14 | −2.44% | +1.96% |
| Oct 13 | +0.05% | +2.54% |
| Oct 12 | +0.55% | +2.49% |
| Oct 9 | +1.67% | +2.41% |
| Oct 8 | +0.79% | +1.85% |
| Oct 7 | +2.03% | +1.24% |
| Oct 6 | +2.69% | +2.07% |
| Oct 5 | +2.19% | +1.49% |
| Oct 2 | +0.76% | +0.82% |
| Oct 1 | +0.21% | +0.47% |
| Sep 30 | 0.00% | 0.00% |
The basket of stocks held by Value Aligned Research Advisors, the AI-focused fund at the center of liquidation rumors in mid-October (see the Oct 16 recap), kept falling this week. Its 25 largest positions from the June 30 filing, weighted by the fund's holdings, are −15.6% since Sept 30, compared with −12.1% through Oct 16. There is still no confirmation that the fund is unwinding.
Griffin pushed back on the explanation itself. Blaming the chip selloff on hedge fund deleveraging "actually washes your hands of accountability," he said, meaning that the funds had chosen to crowd into the same trade. In the Bloomberg interview, he said deleveraging should be the last explanation an investor reaches for, after working out what other traders know. He also described how Citadel took over the entire Situational Awareness portfolio within 24 hours during July's selloff, after fast-money traders had started selling ahead of the fund, and hedged it for several days; he said he does not expect a similar case soon. The data support both readings. The losses were concentrated where the crowding was, which is what forced selling looks like. But the crowding itself came from a fundamental bet on AI spending, and that bet is now being questioned on its merits. That July sale marked the low of the month's chip rout, as covered in an August recap. A bottom driven by the end of forced selling only holds if the fundamental doubt fades too.
Semiconductors at the 200-Day Line
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index touched its 200-day moving average on Thursday for the first time since June 2025, then dipped below it intraday again on Friday and closed above it both days. Traders watch that line as support. The question is whether it has worked as support in the past.
Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and its 200-day average
Daily closes since July 2024
Simple moving averages of daily closes.
View the data table
| Close | SOX | 50-day average | 200-day average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | 10,780 | 11,950 | 10,690 |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 10,732 | 11,983 | 10,674 |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 11,581 | 12,082 | 10,578 |
| Oct 8, 2026 | 12,624 | 12,041 | 10,456 |
| Oct 1, 2026 | 12,829 | 11,880 | 10,303 |
| Sep 24, 2026 | 12,492 | 11,817 | 10,170 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | 11,600 | 11,842 | 10,039 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | 11,614 | 11,978 | 9,923 |
| Sep 2, 2026 | 11,339 | 12,179 | 9,796 |
| Aug 26, 2026 | 11,611 | 12,413 | 9,684 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | 11,738 | 12,560 | 9,571 |
| Aug 12, 2026 | 12,399 | 12,663 | 9,444 |
| Aug 5, 2026 | 12,009 | 12,729 | 9,310 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | 10,448 | 12,736 | 9,185 |
| Jul 22, 2026 | 12,411 | 12,782 | 9,068 |
| Jul 15, 2026 | 12,399 | 12,699 | 8,928 |
| Jul 8, 2026 | 12,575 | 12,469 | 8,769 |
| Jun 30, 2026 | 14,247 | 12,189 | 8,602 |
| Jun 23, 2026 | 13,482 | 11,745 | 8,406 |
| Jun 15, 2026 | 14,100 | 11,201 | 8,202 |
| Jun 8, 2026 | 12,907 | 10,647 | 8,018 |
| Jun 1, 2026 | 12,966 | 10,097 | 7,830 |
| May 22, 2026 | 12,202 | 9,592 | 7,652 |
| May 15, 2026 | 11,588 | 9,195 | 7,499 |
| May 8, 2026 | 11,776 | 8,800 | 7,344 |
| May 1, 2026 | 10,595 | 8,511 | 7,207 |
| Apr 24, 2026 | 10,514 | 8,290 | 7,090 |
| Apr 17, 2026 | 9,556 | 8,099 | 6,982 |
| Apr 10, 2026 | 8,890 | 7,972 | 6,888 |
| Apr 2, 2026 | 7,833 | 7,939 | 6,810 |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 7,586 | 7,969 | 6,751 |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 7,863 | 7,953 | 6,683 |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 7,643 | 7,908 | 6,609 |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 7,822 | 7,852 | 6,536 |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 8,197 | 7,749 | 6,460 |
| Feb 19, 2026 | 8,173 | 7,652 | 6,362 |
| Feb 11, 2026 | 8,292 | 7,557 | 6,265 |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 7,619 | 7,427 | 6,164 |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 8,307 | 7,288 | 6,062 |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 8,042 | 7,181 | 5,955 |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 7,748 | 7,108 | 5,864 |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 7,651 | 7,065 | 5,788 |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 7,178 | 7,011 | 5,720 |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 7,068 | 6,958 | 5,652 |
| Dec 12, 2025 | 7,034 | 6,940 | 5,595 |
| Dec 5, 2025 | 7,295 | 6,849 | 5,535 |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 7,025 | 6,759 | 5,486 |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 6,352 | 6,694 | 5,444 |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 6,819 | 6,619 | 5,404 |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 7,018 | 6,487 | 5,356 |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 7,216 | 6,348 | 5,310 |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 6,847 | 6,205 | 5,258 |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 6,800 | 6,098 | 5,215 |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 6,840 | 5,990 | 5,177 |
| Oct 2, 2025 | 6,626 | 5,888 | 5,136 |
| Sep 25, 2025 | 6,285 | 5,815 | 5,100 |
| Sep 18, 2025 | 6,278 | 5,755 | 5,068 |
| Sep 11, 2025 | 5,995 | 5,708 | 5,040 |
| Sep 4, 2025 | 5,668 | 5,674 | 5,015 |
| Aug 27, 2025 | 5,825 | 5,633 | 5,003 |
| Aug 20, 2025 | 5,631 | 5,580 | 4,985 |
| Aug 13, 2025 | 5,893 | 5,510 | 4,972 |
| Aug 6, 2025 | 5,550 | 5,418 | 4,958 |
| Jul 30, 2025 | 5,787 | 5,342 | 4,951 |
| Jul 23, 2025 | 5,638 | 5,262 | 4,938 |
| Jul 16, 2025 | 5,696 | 5,131 | 4,925 |
| Jul 9, 2025 | 5,666 | 4,988 | 4,909 |
| Jul 1, 2025 | 5,508 | 4,826 | 4,892 |
| Jun 24, 2025 | 5,442 | 4,668 | 4,871 |
| Jun 16, 2025 | 5,267 | 4,520 | 4,863 |
| Jun 9, 2025 | 5,137 | 4,419 | 4,862 |
| Jun 2, 2025 | 4,833 | 4,372 | 4,864 |
| May 23, 2025 | 4,702 | 4,351 | 4,861 |
| May 16, 2025 | 4,922 | 4,316 | 4,860 |
| May 9, 2025 | 4,466 | 4,288 | 4,863 |
| May 2, 2025 | 4,397 | 4,344 | 4,888 |
| Apr 25, 2025 | 4,252 | 4,441 | 4,927 |
| Apr 17, 2025 | 3,832 | 4,548 | 4,968 |
| Apr 10, 2025 | 3,893 | 4,654 | 5,006 |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 3,894 | 4,784 | 5,051 |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 4,415 | 4,893 | 5,083 |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 4,601 | 4,945 | 5,100 |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 4,453 | 4,994 | 5,115 |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 4,488 | 5,058 | 5,130 |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 4,687 | 5,104 | 5,138 |
| Feb 20, 2025 | 5,311 | 5,110 | 5,134 |
| Feb 12, 2025 | 5,091 | 5,089 | 5,119 |
| Feb 5, 2025 | 5,092 | 5,076 | 5,104 |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 4,918 | 5,066 | 5,095 |
| Jan 22, 2025 | 5,469 | 5,074 | 5,088 |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 5,046 | 5,049 | 5,078 |
| Jan 6, 2025 | 5,310 | 5,060 | 5,073 |
| Dec 27, 2024 | 5,123 | 5,070 | 5,064 |
| Dec 19, 2024 | 4,894 | 5,086 | 5,061 |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 4,982 | 5,099 | 5,056 |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 5,026 | 5,116 | 5,048 |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 4,853 | 5,119 | 5,034 |
| Nov 20, 2024 | 4,884 | 5,116 | 5,023 |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 5,006 | 5,096 | 5,009 |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 5,216 | 5,073 | 4,989 |
| Oct 30, 2024 | 5,154 | 5,086 | 4,971 |
| Oct 23, 2024 | 5,131 | 5,079 | 4,942 |
| Oct 16, 2024 | 5,156 | 5,032 | 4,912 |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 5,322 | 4,980 | 4,884 |
| Oct 2, 2024 | 5,099 | 4,962 | 4,856 |
| Sep 25, 2024 | 5,132 | 4,985 | 4,826 |
| Sep 18, 2024 | 4,859 | 5,058 | 4,792 |
| Sep 11, 2024 | 4,910 | 5,134 | 4,762 |
| Sep 4, 2024 | 4,771 | 5,210 | 4,738 |
| Aug 27, 2024 | 5,154 | 5,274 | 4,704 |
| Aug 20, 2024 | 5,196 | 5,306 | 4,661 |
| Aug 13, 2024 | 4,942 | 5,316 | 4,613 |
| Aug 6, 2024 | 4,568 | 5,366 | 4,578 |
| Jul 30, 2024 | 4,890 | 5,398 | 4,546 |
| Jul 23, 2024 | 5,398 | 5,386 | 4,507 |
| Jul 16, 2024 | 5,804 | 5,324 | 4,458 |
| Jul 9, 2024 | 5,765 | 5,210 | 4,397 |
| Jul 1, 2024 | 5,477 | 5,089 | 4,342 |
Since 1995, the SOX has made 15 first touches of its 200-day average after at least 120 straight closes above it. Twenty trading days later, the index was higher nine times, with a median change of +1.9%, close to the +1.7% median for any 20-day period. Sixty days later, it was higher only seven times, with a median of −1.2%, against +4.7% for all 60-day periods. In nine of the 15 cases, the index closed more than 3% below the line within 20 days, and the median worst point over the next six months was 19% below the touch.
What happened after the SOX first touched its 200-day average
Every first touch after at least 120 straight closes above the average, 1995-2024: return 20 and 60 trading days later
“held” = the index closed above the average on the day of the touch, as it did on Oct 22 and Oct 23, 2026. Touch = intraday low at or below the 200-day simple moving average of closes.
View the data table
| First touch | 60 days later | 20 days later |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 1995 ·held | −13.9% | −10.7% |
| Oct 1997 | −14.1% | −2.4% |
| Aug 2000 ·held | −27.9% | +21.3% |
| Mar 2004 | −1.2% | +2.4% |
| May 2006 | −17.5% | −11.4% |
| Aug 2007 | −8.7% | +1.9% |
| May 2010 ·held | +0.7% | −1.2% |
| Jun 2011 | −15.8% | +1.0% |
| Oct 2014 | +18.5% | +13.6% |
| Jun 2015 | −12.9% | −4.0% |
| Apr 2018 | +9.8% | +9.9% |
| Feb 2020 ·held | +6.7% | −12.7% |
| Oct 2021 ·held | +23.0% | +19.6% |
| Oct 2023 | +32.7% | +15.4% |
| Aug 2024 ·held | +13.1% | +12.0% |
The history splits sharply by era. Before 2018, eight of the 10 first touches were followed by lower prices 60 days later, including August 2000, when a bounce of more than 20% turned into a 28% decline. Since 2018, all five touches were followed by higher prices, including October 2023 (+32.7%) and August 2024 (+13.1%). The recent cases came during the long upswing in chip demand from cloud computing and then AI. Most of the older ones came near the top of a chip cycle. The 200-day line by itself has been close to a coin flip; what decided the outcome each time was whether the demand cycle was still rising. That makes next week's capital spending guidance from Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon more important for the SOX than the moving average.
Memory Prices and the Chip Cycle
Contract prices for memory chips are published by private research firms, so a public stand-in is needed to see where the cycle stands. Micron's gross margin works well, because it moves closely with DRAM and NAND prices. In the quarter that ended Sept 3, Micron's revenue was $54.2 billion, nearly five times the $11.3 billion of a year earlier, and its gross margin was 86.8%, against 44.7% a year earlier and a peak of 61.0% in the 2018 cycle, based on its SEC filings.
Memory margins, chip stocks and the S&P 500
Micron's quarterly gross margin (right axis) vs. 12-month change in the SOX and the S&P 500 at each quarter end (left axis)
DRAM contract and spot prices are proprietary (TrendForce/DRAMeXchange), so Micron's gross margin is used as a public proxy for memory pricing. Micron's fiscal quarters end in late Feb/early Mar, late May/early Jun, late Aug/early Sep and late Nov/early Dec; the latest quarter ended Sept 3, 2026. Fiscal fourth quarters are derived as the full year minus the first three quarters.
View the data table
| Quarter end | SOX, 12-month change | S&P 500, 12-month change | Micron gross margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2026 | +98.3% | +14.4% | 86.8% |
| May 2026 | +169.6% | +28.2% | 84.6% |
| Feb 2026 | +69.9% | +15.5% | 74.4% |
| Nov 2025 | +42.6% | +13.5% | 56.0% |
| Aug 2025 | +9.9% | +14.4% | 44.7% |
| May 2025 | −7.1% | +12.0% | 37.7% |
| Feb 2025 | +0.8% | +16.8% | 36.8% |
| Nov 2024 | +32.3% | +32.1% | 38.4% |
| Aug 2024 | +40.5% | +25.3% | 35.3% |
| May 2024 | +48.4% | +26.3% | 26.9% |
| Feb 2024 | +59.8% | +28.4% | 18.5% |
| Nov 2023 | +31.8% | +12.0% | −0.7% |
| Aug 2023 | +37.1% | +14.0% | −10.8% |
| Jun 2023 | +43.7% | +17.6% | −17.8% |
| Mar 2023 | −5.8% | −9.3% | −32.7% |
| Dec 2022 | −35.8% | −19.4% | 21.9% |
| Sep 2022 | −29.2% | −16.8% | 39.5% |
| Jun 2022 | −23.6% | −11.9% | 46.7% |
| Mar 2022 | +9.7% | +14.0% | 47.2% |
| Dec 2021 | +41.2% | +26.9% | 46.4% |
| Sep 2021 | +45.2% | +28.1% | 47.3% |
| Jun 2021 | +67.6% | +38.6% | 42.1% |
| Mar 2021 | +106.9% | +53.7% | 26.4% |
| Dec 2020 | +51.1% | +16.3% | 30.1% |
| Sep 2020 | +44.0% | +13.0% | 34.1% |
| May 2020 | +42.9% | +10.6% | 32.4% |
| Feb 2020 | +26.3% | +6.1% | 28.2% |
| Nov 2019 | +38.5% | +13.8% | 26.6% |
| Aug 2019 | +7.4% | +0.9% | 28.6% |
| May 2019 | −6.0% | +1.7% | 38.2% |
| Feb 2019 | −0.9% | +2.6% | 49.1% |
| Nov 2018 | −2.6% | +4.3% | 58.3% |
| Aug 2018 | +25.7% | +17.4% | 61.0% |
| May 2018 | +26.3% | +12.2% | 60.6% |
| Mar 2018 | +31.4% | +11.8% | 58.1% |
| Nov 2017 | +44.7% | +20.4% | 55.1% |
| Aug 2017 | +39.0% | +13.9% | 50.7% |
| Jun 2017 | +49.6% | +15.5% | 46.9% |
| Mar 2017 | +49.4% | +14.7% | 36.7% |
| Dec 2016 | +36.6% | +9.5% | 25.5% |
| Sep 2016 | +38.6% | +12.9% | 18.0% |
| Jun 2016 | +1.6% | +1.7% | 17.2% |
| Mar 2016 | −2.7% | −0.4% | 19.7% |
| Dec 2015 | −3.4% | −0.7% | 25.3% |
| Sep 2015 | −5.6% | −2.6% | 26.9% |
| Jun 2015 | +7.0% | +5.2% | 31.2% |
| Mar 2015 | +18.5% | +10.4% | 33.7% |
| Dec 2014 | +28.4% | +11.4% | 35.8% |
| Aug 2014 | +41.0% | +22.7% | 32.8% |
| May 2014 | +27.9% | +18.0% | 34.4% |
| Feb 2014 | +32.2% | +22.8% | 34.2% |
| Nov 2013 | +36.3% | +27.5% | 31.7% |
| Aug 2013 | +15.5% | +16.1% | 24.9% |
| May 2013 | +27.2% | +24.5% | 24.0% |
| Feb 2013 | +0.6% | +10.9% | 17.6% |
| Nov 2012 | +0.3% | +13.6% | 11.8% |
| Aug 2012 | +11.4% | +15.4% | 11.2% |
| May 2012 | −16.2% | −2.6% | 10.8% |
| Mar 2012 | +0.3% | +6.2% | 10.5% |
| Dec 2011 | −11.5% | 0.0% | 14.6% |
| Sep 2011 | −3.0% | −0.9% | 15.0% |
| Jun 2011 | +23.5% | +28.1% | 22.3% |
| Mar 2011 | +19.3% | +13.4% | 19.3% |
| Dec 2010 | +14.4% | +12.8% | 23.3% |
| Sep 2010 | +7.2% | +8.0% | 31.3% |
| Jun 2010 | +26.3% | +12.1% | 37.1% |
| Mar 2010 | +58.8% | +46.6% | 32.7% |
| Dec 2009 | +69.6% | +23.5% | 25.5% |
| Dec 2008 | −48.0% | −38.5% | −32.0% |
The history shows a consistent order of events. In every cycle since 2009, the SOX's 12-month gain, measured at quarter ends, peaked before Micron's margin did, by roughly four to 14 months: at the end of 2009 before the June 2010 margin peak, in 2017 before August 2018, in March 2021 before September 2021, and in February 2024 before November 2024. This time, the SOX's 12-month gain peaked at about 170% at the end of May and the index itself peaked on June 22, while Micron's margin was still rising in the September quarter. If the pattern holds, chip stocks are already pricing a margin peak within the next few quarters, which fits the P/E compression in tech described above.
The chart says nothing about how far margins fall when they turn. Micron's margin went from 61% to 27% between 2018 and 2019, and from 47% to −33% between 2022 and 2023. The S&P 500 kept rising through the 2019 downturn but fell alongside chips in 2022, when the Fed was raising rates. That second combination, a memory downturn during a tightening cycle, is the one bears warn about, as the Korea section below explores.
Big Tech's Cash Flow Before the Reports
The four largest AI spenders have spent the past year converting free cash flow into data centers. In the 12 months to June, Microsoft generated $182.9 billion of operating cash and spent $119.0 billion on capital projects. Alphabet generated $185.7 billion and spent $134.9 billion. Amazon spent $174.6 billion against $161.4 billion of operating cash. Meta, which reported on Wednesday, spent $108.0 billion in the 12 months to September against $133.1 billion, and its free cash flow turned negative in the third quarter.
Free cash flow after AI spending, by quarter
Operating cash flow minus capital spending incl. finance lease principal, $ billions
Calendar quarters. Capital spending = purchases of property and equipment + principal payments on finance leases. Amazon's tagged purchases are gross of proceeds and incentives, so its free cash flow here is slightly lower than the company's own figure. Meta has reported its September quarter; the others report Oct 28-29.
View the data table
| Quarter | Microsoft | Alphabet | Amazon | Meta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 '26 | – | – | – | −$2.1B |
| Q2 '26 | $18.7B | −$6.2B | −$9.2B | $0.8B |
| Q1 '26 | $15.0B | $9.6B | −$18.6B | $12.4B |
| Q4 '25 | $5.2B | $23.0B | $14.6B | $14.1B |
| Q3 '25 | $25.0B | $24.4B | $0.1B | $10.6B |
| Q2 '25 | $24.9B | $5.2B | −$0.1B | $8.6B |
| Q1 '25 | $19.9B | $18.8B | −$8.4B | $10.3B |
| Q4 '24 | $6.0B | $24.7B | $17.5B | $13.2B |
| Q3 '24 | $18.5B | $17.5B | $3.0B | $15.5B |
| Q2 '24 | $22.9B | $13.3B | $7.1B | $10.9B |
| Q1 '24 | $20.6B | $16.8B | $3.3B | $12.5B |
| Q4 '23 | $8.8B | $7.9B | $27.1B | $11.5B |
| Q3 '23 | $20.4B | $22.6B | $7.7B | $13.6B |
| Q2 '23 | $19.6B | $21.8B | $3.8B | $11.0B |
| Q1 '23 | $17.6B | $17.2B | −$10.8B | $6.9B |
Twelve months of cash in and cash out
Trailing 12-month operating cash flow vs. capital spending, $ billions (latest reported quarter)
Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon: 12 months to June 30, 2026. Meta: to Sept 30, 2026. Oracle: to Aug 31, 2026 (fiscal Q1 2027), from the company's free cash flow table; Oracle's capital spending excludes finance leases.
View the data table
| Company | Operating cash flow | Capital spending |
|---|---|---|
| Oracle | $46.9B | $75.7B |
| Meta | $133.1B | $108.0B |
| Amazon | $161.4B | $174.6B |
| Alphabet | $185.7B | $134.9B |
| Microsoft | $182.9B | $119.0B |
Spending at that scale is only justified if it produces revenue, and here the four companies split into two groups. Three of them rent computing capacity to outside customers, and that business is growing fast. AWS revenue rose 37% to $42.2 billion in the June quarter and its operating income 64% to $16.6 billion, Amazon reported. Google Cloud revenue rose 82% to $24.8 billion and operating income tripled to $8.8 billion, according to Alphabet. Microsoft's Azure grew 43% and its commercial backlog reached $678 billion, the company said. Oracle's cloud infrastructure revenue rose 121% in the August quarter, and its remaining performance obligations reached $664 billion.
The more useful measure is how much new revenue each dollar of spending is buying. Taking the year-over-year increase in each cloud business's quarterly revenue, annualizing it, and dividing by the company's capital spending over the past 12 months gives about $33 of new annual revenue per $100 of capex at Google Cloud, $32 at Microsoft's Intelligent Cloud segment, $26 at AWS and $21 at Oracle. Measured by operating income, each $100 of capex has bought about $18 of new annual profit at Google Cloud and $15 at AWS.
New cloud revenue for each dollar of capital spending
Year-over-year increase in quarterly cloud revenue, annualized, as a share of trailing 12-month capital spending
Latest reported quarter vs. the same quarter a year earlier: June quarter for AWS, Google Cloud and Microsoft; August quarter for Oracle. Company-wide capital spending is used because none of the four discloses cloud-only capex. Microsoft's Intelligent Cloud segment and Oracle's cloud infrastructure line are the closest reported equivalents. Backlog: AWS and Google Cloud as disclosed with Q2 results; Microsoft commercial remaining performance obligation; Oracle total remaining performance obligations, compared with Oracle's total revenue because its backlog covers the whole company.
View the data table
| Cloud business | New annual revenue per $100 of capex | New annualized revenue |
|---|---|---|
| AWS (Amazon) | $26 | $45.4B |
| Google Cloud | $33 | $44.6B |
| Intelligent Cloud (Microsoft) | $32 | $38.1B |
| Oracle Cloud Infrastructure | $21 | $16.2B |
Those numbers are not yet a good return on assets that wear out in five or six years, but they are rising, and the backlogs suggest more revenue is already contracted: AWS's equals about three years of its current revenue, Google Cloud's about five, and Microsoft's commercial backlog about four years of its Intelligent Cloud revenue. This is where the comparison with the metaverse and NFTs breaks down. Meta's Reality Labs spent years on a product with no paying customers. Cloud AI has paying customers and signed contracts. The weaker link is who those customers are. Much of the growth in these backlogs comes from AI labs such as OpenAI and Anthropic that are themselves raising money, which is why this week's funding scare spread so quickly from Meta to the suppliers.
The AI labs sit one step further out on the same chain. Anthropic's confidential draft IPO filing lists $518 billion of compute commitments over roughly the next decade, about 80% of them payable regardless of use, including at least $111 billion with Google, $110 billion with Amazon and about $161 billion of Broadcom-related equipment leases, Reuters reported. A later version described about $450 billion of noncancelable cloud agreements and up to $750 billion of potential compute spending, according to the Journal's reporting as summarized by 24/7 Wall St. Against that, Anthropic's revenue was about $16.3 billion in the first half of 2026, and its annualized run rate passed $65 billion at the end of July, Axios reported, citing Bloomberg. OpenAI expects to spend about $856 billion on computing through 2030, according to reports by the Financial Times and Bloomberg summarized by Tech Times, against annualized revenue of roughly $50 billion at the end of September, Bloomberg reported.
AI labs: compute commitments vs. revenue
Multi-year compute commitments or spending plans vs. annualized revenue, $ billions
Anthropic: $518 billion of compute commitments over about a decade in its confidential draft IPO filing (Sept version; about 80% payable regardless of use), run rate above $65 billion at the end of July; first-half 2026 revenue was about $16.3 billion. OpenAI: about $856 billion of planned computing spending through 2030, run rate about $50 billion at the end of September. The two companies count revenue from cloud resellers differently, and run rates extrapolate a short period, so the comparison is approximate.
View the data table
| Company | Compute commitments / plan | Annualized revenue run rate |
|---|---|---|
| OpenAI | $856B | $50B |
| Anthropic | $518B | $65B |
Those commitments equal roughly eight and 17 times the two labs' current run rates. They are spread over many years and revenue is growing quickly, with Anthropic's first-half revenue about 15 times the year-earlier level, so the gap can close. But the hyperscalers' backlogs and the chipmakers' order books rest on those commitments being met, and both labs need outside capital to meet them. That is the link between an AI lab's next funding round and Lam Research's stock price.
For the hyperscalers themselves, annual capital spending now exceeds annualized cloud revenue at Amazon, Alphabet and Oracle, while Microsoft's Intelligent Cloud revenue still runs above its trailing capex.
Annual spending vs. annualized cloud revenue
Capital spending (2026 guidance or trailing 12 months) vs. latest quarter's cloud revenue × 4, $ billions
Amazon's 2026 capex guidance is about $220 billion; Alphabet's is $195-205 billion; Meta's is $135-145 billion including finance leases. Microsoft has not given calendar-year guidance, so its trailing 12-month figure is shown. Cloud revenue: AWS, Google Cloud and Microsoft's Intelligent Cloud segment for the June quarter; Oracle's cloud infrastructure for the August quarter.
View the data table
| Company | Capital spending | Annualized cloud revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Oracle | $76B | $30B |
| Meta | $140B | $0B |
| Microsoft | $119B | $157B |
| Alphabet | $200B | $99B |
| Amazon | $220B | $169B |
Meta is the exception among the four. It does not rent its computing to anyone, so the return on its spending has to show up in advertising. Revenue rose 26% in the third quarter, which is strong, but its capital spending is now larger than its operating cash flow and its filing says the gap will be filled with outside money. Without an external cloud business, investors cannot see the return in a separate line, and on Thursday they decided not to wait.
Meta's funding plans also became clearer during the week, and the market treated them as a cost to shareholders. The company will distribute one nonvoting Class C share for each existing share, effective Jan 19, 2027, which lets it sell stock later without diluting Mark Zuckerberg's voting control. Barron's reported that Meta could raise about $20 billion within weeks through shares or convertible bonds, with more possible after the distribution, according to a FinanceFeeds summary that also noted Chief Financial Officer Susan Li's comment on the call that Meta has no specific financing plans to announce; she described the "hundreds of billions" in the filing as a theoretical maximum. The cost of insuring Meta's debt rose anyway. Its five-year credit default swaps reached a record of about 115 basis points on Thursday, according to Reuters, using Markit data, and the spread on its 2031 bonds widened to 0.75 percentage point on Friday, according to MarketAxess data cited by the Journal.
Meta can still borrow. It held about $82 billion of cash and securities against about $81 billion of long-term debt at the end of September and is rated investment grade. The problem is scale: borrowing hundreds of billions would strain that rating, so new shares are a likely source for part of the money, and each issue spreads future profits over more stock. A $20 billion raise would equal about 1.1% of Meta's roughly $1.8 trillion market value, small on its own. What investors are pricing is the chance of repeated raises if spending keeps outrunning cash flow.
Next week's reports will be read on four points: whether free cash flow stays positive after capital spending and leases, how any shortfall is being funded, whether cloud revenue is growing faster than capex, and how the stocks are positioned going in. Alphabet's free cash flow was already negative in the June quarter at −$5.9 billion, and Amazon's has been negative over the past 12 months. Over 12 months, Microsoft ($63.9 billion) and Alphabet ($50.8 billion) still have large surpluses after spending.
Is Korea a Preview? Checking the Claim
A widely watched video from Bravos Research argues that Korea's stock market crash is an early warning for the U.S. The case is worth checking piece by piece, because parts of it hold up and parts do not.
The crash itself is real. The KOSPI closed at a record 9,114.55 on June 22, 2026, then slid to 5,593.56 by July 30, a −38.6% drop, over 27 trading sessions rather than a few days. June 23 was a Tuesday, and the index closed −9.99% that day. The Bank of Korea raised its base rate to 2.75% on July 16, its first hike since 2023, according to Trading Economics, and to 3.00% on Aug 27. A same-day signal from the central bank on June 23, as the video describes, could not be confirmed.
Other details need correcting. Korean margin debt peaked near 38 trillion won in June, according to Korea Financial Investment Association data cited by The Korea Herald, and loans tied to Samsung Electronics and SK hynix made up about a quarter of it rather than most of it. Foreign investors did not extend their selling in August; they bought a net 340 billion won of Korean stocks that month, ending a seven-month selling streak, according to Financial Supervisory Service data reported by Korea JoongAng Daily. The selling resumed in September at $14.2 billion, Bank of Korea data showed. Margin loans have since climbed back to 32.75 trillion won, Seoul Economic Daily reported, so Korean investors are re-leveraging into a market still 39% below its June record.
The historical claim is the weakest part. In 2000, the KOSPI peaked on Jan 4 and the S&P 500 on March 24, about 11 weeks later, not eight months; the S&P came back within 0.5% of its high on Sept 1, 2000, which may explain the video's figure. In 2021 the lead held: the KOSPI peaked on July 6, 2021, and the S&P 500 on Jan 3, 2022, about six months later. But in 2007 the S&P 500 peaked first, in 2011 the two peaked the same week, and in 2018 the KOSPI peaked in January while the S&P 500 kept rising until September before a fourth-quarter decline that stopped just short of a bear market.
How many months the KOSPI peaked before the S&P 500
Cycle highs on closing prices; negative = the S&P 500 peaked first
Highest close within each cycle. 2026: the S&P 500's record on Oct 6 is the high so far, not a confirmed cycle peak. On Sept 1, 2000, about eight months after the KOSPI's high, the S&P 500 closed within 0.5% of its March record.
View the data table
| Cycle | Months, KOSPI high → S&P 500 high |
|---|---|
| 2000 cycle | +2.6 mo |
| 2007 cycle | −0.7 mo |
| 2011 cycle | −0.1 mo |
| 2018 cycle | +7.7 mo |
| 2021 cycle | +5.9 mo |
| 2026 so far | +3.5 mo |
This cycle has a detail the video leaves out. The KOSPI and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index peaked on the same day, June 22. Korea's market is dominated by memory chipmakers, so the KOSPI has been tracking the chip cycle, not leading the U.S. economy. Since June 22, the KOSPI is −39.1%, the SOX −26.3% and the S&P 500 +2.0%. The question the video raises is better asked directly: will the rest of the U.S. market follow its chip stocks down?
KOSPI, the chip index and the S&P 500 since January 2025
Indexed to 100 on Jan 2, 2025 (log-like spacing not applied)
Daily closes. Korean and U.S. trading days differ; only days when both markets traded are shown.
View the data table
| Close | KOSPI | Philadelphia Semiconductor Index | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | 231 | 215 | 130 |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 231 | 214 | 131 |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 239 | 229 | 132 |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 232 | 225 | 131 |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 240 | 225 | 131 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 236 | 222 | 130 |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 232 | 231 | 132 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 250 | 233 | 132 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | 252 | 243 | 133 |
| Oct 12, 2026 | 266 | 244 | 133 |
| Oct 8, 2026 | 276 | 251 | 132 |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 284 | 260 | 133 |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 289 | 263 | 133 |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 292 | 262 | 132 |
| Oct 1, 2026 | 291 | 256 | 131 |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 285 | 252 | 130 |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 286 | 252 | 131 |
| Sep 28, 2026 | 287 | 248 | 131 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | 295 | 250 | 131 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | 292 | 253 | 132 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | 292 | 248 | 132 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 287 | 237 | 130 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | 280 | 231 | 130 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | 280 | 224 | 129 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | 276 | 223 | 129 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | 279 | 222 | 130 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 288 | 236 | 130 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | 293 | 231 | 129 |
| Sep 9, 2026 | 294 | 238 | 130 |
| Sep 8, 2026 | 290 | 237 | 131 |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 279 | 234 | 132 |
| Sep 3, 2026 | 274 | 226 | 132 |
| Sep 2, 2026 | 274 | 226 | 131 |
| Sep 1, 2026 | 285 | 225 | 130 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | 284 | 230 | 131 |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 283 | 228 | 131 |
| Aug 27, 2026 | 288 | 237 | 132 |
| Aug 26, 2026 | 284 | 231 | 131 |
| Aug 25, 2026 | 281 | 231 | 131 |
| Aug 24, 2026 | 279 | 228 | 130 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 288 | 234 | 131 |
| Aug 20, 2026 | 286 | 235 | 130 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | 270 | 234 | 131 |
| Aug 18, 2026 | 286 | 239 | 131 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | 291 | 247 | 133 |
| Aug 13, 2026 | 284 | 248 | 133 |
| Aug 12, 2026 | 274 | 247 | 132 |
| Aug 11, 2026 | 264 | 241 | 132 |
| Aug 10, 2026 | 263 | 239 | 132 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | 261 | 246 | 132 |
| Aug 6, 2026 | 262 | 240 | 131 |
| Aug 5, 2026 | 275 | 239 | 132 |
| Aug 4, 2026 | 265 | 242 | 132 |
| Aug 3, 2026 | 261 | 228 | 130 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | 275 | 225 | 128 |
| Jul 30, 2026 | 233 | 225 | 127 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | 236 | 208 | 125 |
| Jul 28, 2026 | 251 | 220 | 127 |
| Jul 27, 2026 | 282 | 230 | 126 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | 279 | 235 | 126 |
| Jul 23, 2026 | 296 | 246 | 126 |
| Jul 22, 2026 | 283 | 247 | 128 |
| Jul 21, 2026 | 281 | 246 | 128 |
| Jul 20, 2026 | 272 | 234 | 127 |
| Jul 16, 2026 | 284 | 236 | 128 |
| Jul 15, 2026 | 304 | 247 | 129 |
| Jul 14, 2026 | 286 | 252 | 128 |
| Jul 13, 2026 | 284 | 246 | 128 |
| Jul 10, 2026 | 312 | 258 | 129 |
| Jul 9, 2026 | 304 | 258 | 128 |
| Jul 8, 2026 | 302 | 250 | 128 |
| Jul 7, 2026 | 319 | 245 | 128 |
| Jul 6, 2026 | 336 | 257 | 128 |
| Jul 2, 2026 | 319 | 251 | 128 |
| Jul 1, 2026 | 346 | 266 | 128 |
| Jun 30, 2026 | 353 | 284 | 128 |
| Jun 29, 2026 | 350 | 273 | 127 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | 351 | 263 | 125 |
| Jun 25, 2026 | 372 | 278 | 125 |
| Jun 24, 2026 | 353 | 268 | 125 |
| Jun 23, 2026 | 342 | 268 | 126 |
| Jun 22, 2026 | 380 | 291 | 127 |
| Jun 18, 2026 | 378 | 286 | 128 |
| Jun 17, 2026 | 370 | 268 | 126 |
| Jun 16, 2026 | 364 | 265 | 128 |
| Jun 15, 2026 | 356 | 281 | 129 |
| Jun 12, 2026 | 339 | 266 | 127 |
| Jun 11, 2026 | 324 | 262 | 126 |
| Jun 10, 2026 | 322 | 243 | 124 |
| Jun 9, 2026 | 338 | 252 | 126 |
| Jun 8, 2026 | 312 | 257 | 126 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | 340 | 243 | 126 |
| Jun 4, 2026 | 360 | 271 | 129 |
| Jun 2, 2026 | 367 | 273 | 130 |
| Jun 1, 2026 | 366 | 258 | 130 |
| May 29, 2026 | 353 | 256 | 129 |
| May 28, 2026 | 341 | 256 | 129 |
| May 27, 2026 | 343 | 253 | 128 |
| May 26, 2026 | 336 | 256 | 128 |
| May 22, 2026 | 327 | 243 | 127 |
| May 21, 2026 | 326 | 238 | 127 |
| May 20, 2026 | 300 | 235 | 127 |
| May 19, 2026 | 303 | 225 | 125 |
| May 18, 2026 | 313 | 225 | 126 |
| May 15, 2026 | 312 | 231 | 126 |
| May 14, 2026 | 333 | 240 | 128 |
| May 13, 2026 | 327 | 239 | 127 |
| May 12, 2026 | 319 | 233 | 126 |
| May 11, 2026 | 326 | 241 | 126 |
| May 8, 2026 | 313 | 234 | 126 |
| May 7, 2026 | 312 | 222 | 125 |
| May 6, 2026 | 308 | 228 | 126 |
| May 4, 2026 | 289 | 210 | 123 |
| Apr 30, 2026 | 275 | 209 | 123 |
| Apr 29, 2026 | 279 | 204 | 122 |
| Apr 28, 2026 | 277 | 200 | 122 |
| Apr 27, 2026 | 276 | 207 | 122 |
| Apr 24, 2026 | 270 | 209 | 122 |
| Apr 23, 2026 | 270 | 201 | 121 |
| Apr 22, 2026 | 268 | 197 | 122 |
| Apr 21, 2026 | 266 | 192 | 120 |
| Apr 20, 2026 | 259 | 191 | 121 |
| Apr 17, 2026 | 258 | 190 | 121 |
| Apr 16, 2026 | 260 | 186 | 120 |
| Apr 15, 2026 | 254 | 184 | 120 |
| Apr 14, 2026 | 249 | 184 | 119 |
| Apr 13, 2026 | 242 | 180 | 117 |
| Apr 10, 2026 | 244 | 177 | 116 |
| Apr 9, 2026 | 241 | 173 | 116 |
| Apr 8, 2026 | 245 | 170 | 116 |
| Apr 7, 2026 | 229 | 159 | 113 |
| Apr 6, 2026 | 227 | 158 | 113 |
| Apr 2, 2026 | 218 | 156 | 112 |
| Apr 1, 2026 | 228 | 155 | 112 |
| Mar 31, 2026 | 211 | 151 | 111 |
| Mar 30, 2026 | 220 | 142 | 108 |
| Mar 27, 2026 | 227 | 148 | 108 |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 228 | 151 | 110 |
| Mar 25, 2026 | 235 | 159 | 112 |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 232 | 157 | 112 |
| Mar 23, 2026 | 225 | 155 | 112 |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 241 | 153 | 111 |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 240 | 157 | 113 |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 247 | 155 | 113 |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 235 | 156 | 114 |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 231 | 155 | 114 |
| Mar 13, 2026 | 229 | 152 | 113 |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 233 | 152 | 114 |
| Mar 11, 2026 | 234 | 158 | 116 |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 231 | 157 | 116 |
| Mar 9, 2026 | 219 | 156 | 116 |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 233 | 150 | 115 |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 233 | 156 | 116 |
| Mar 4, 2026 | 212 | 158 | 117 |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 241 | 155 | 116 |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 260 | 161 | 117 |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 263 | 163 | 118 |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 254 | 169 | 118 |
| Feb 24, 2026 | 249 | 166 | 117 |
| Feb 23, 2026 | 244 | 164 | 116 |
| Feb 20, 2026 | 242 | 164 | 118 |
| Feb 19, 2026 | 237 | 163 | 117 |
| Feb 13, 2026 | 230 | 162 | 116 |
| Feb 12, 2026 | 230 | 161 | 116 |
| Feb 11, 2026 | 223 | 165 | 118 |
| Feb 10, 2026 | 221 | 161 | 118 |
| Feb 9, 2026 | 221 | 163 | 119 |
| Feb 6, 2026 | 212 | 160 | 118 |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 215 | 152 | 116 |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 224 | 152 | 117 |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 220 | 159 | 118 |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 206 | 162 | 119 |
| Jan 30, 2026 | 218 | 159 | 118 |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 218 | 166 | 119 |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 216 | 165 | 119 |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 212 | 162 | 119 |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 206 | 158 | 118 |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 208 | 158 | 118 |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 206 | 160 | 118 |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 205 | 160 | 117 |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 204 | 155 | 116 |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 202 | 158 | 118 |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 200 | 156 | 118 |
| Jan 14, 2026 | 197 | 153 | 118 |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 196 | 154 | 119 |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 193 | 153 | 119 |
| Jan 9, 2026 | 191 | 152 | 119 |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 190 | 148 | 118 |
| Jan 7, 2026 | 190 | 151 | 118 |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 189 | 152 | 118 |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 186 | 148 | 118 |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 180 | 147 | 117 |
| Dec 30, 2025 | 176 | 143 | 118 |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 176 | 143 | 118 |
| Dec 26, 2025 | 172 | 144 | 118 |
| Dec 24, 2025 | 171 | 144 | 118 |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 172 | 143 | 118 |
| Dec 22, 2025 | 171 | 142 | 117 |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 168 | 141 | 116 |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 166 | 137 | 115 |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 169 | 133 | 114 |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 167 | 139 | 116 |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 170 | 139 | 116 |
| Dec 12, 2025 | 174 | 140 | 116 |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 171 | 148 | 118 |
| Dec 10, 2025 | 172 | 149 | 117 |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 173 | 147 | 117 |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 173 | 147 | 117 |
| Dec 5, 2025 | 171 | 145 | 117 |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 168 | 144 | 117 |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 168 | 145 | 117 |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 166 | 142 | 116 |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 163 | 140 | 116 |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 164 | 140 | 117 |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 165 | 137 | 116 |
| Nov 25, 2025 | 161 | 134 | 115 |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 160 | 134 | 114 |
| Nov 21, 2025 | 161 | 128 | 112 |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 167 | 126 | 111 |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 164 | 133 | 113 |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 165 | 130 | 113 |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 170 | 134 | 114 |
| Nov 14, 2025 | 167 | 136 | 115 |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 174 | 136 | 115 |
| Nov 12, 2025 | 173 | 141 | 117 |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 171 | 139 | 117 |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 170 | 142 | 116 |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 165 | 138 | 115 |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 168 | 140 | 114 |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 167 | 143 | 116 |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 172 | 139 | 115 |
| Nov 3, 2025 | 176 | 145 | 117 |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 171 | 144 | 117 |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 170 | 144 | 116 |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 170 | 146 | 117 |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 167 | 143 | 117 |
| Oct 27, 2025 | 168 | 143 | 117 |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 164 | 139 | 116 |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 160 | 136 | 115 |
| Oct 22, 2025 | 162 | 133 | 114 |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 159 | 136 | 115 |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 159 | 137 | 115 |
| Oct 17, 2025 | 156 | 135 | 114 |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 156 | 135 | 113 |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 152 | 135 | 114 |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 148 | 131 | 113 |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 149 | 134 | 113 |
| Oct 10, 2025 | 150 | 128 | 112 |
| Oct 2, 2025 | 148 | 132 | 114 |
| Oct 1, 2025 | 144 | 129 | 114 |
| Sep 30, 2025 | 143 | 127 | 114 |
| Sep 29, 2025 | 143 | 126 | 114 |
| Sep 26, 2025 | 141 | 126 | 113 |
| Sep 25, 2025 | 145 | 125 | 112 |
| Sep 24, 2025 | 145 | 125 | 113 |
| Sep 23, 2025 | 145 | 126 | 113 |
| Sep 22, 2025 | 145 | 126 | 114 |
| Sep 19, 2025 | 144 | 124 | 114 |
| Sep 18, 2025 | 144 | 125 | 113 |
| Sep 17, 2025 | 142 | 121 | 112 |
| Sep 16, 2025 | 144 | 121 | 113 |
| Sep 15, 2025 | 142 | 121 | 113 |
| Sep 12, 2025 | 142 | 120 | 112 |
| Sep 11, 2025 | 139 | 119 | 112 |
| Sep 10, 2025 | 138 | 119 | 111 |
| Sep 9, 2025 | 136 | 116 | 111 |
| Sep 8, 2025 | 134 | 116 | 111 |
| Sep 5, 2025 | 134 | 115 | 110 |
| Sep 4, 2025 | 133 | 113 | 111 |
| Sep 3, 2025 | 133 | 111 | 110 |
| Sep 2, 2025 | 132 | 112 | 109 |
| Aug 29, 2025 | 133 | 113 | 110 |
| Aug 28, 2025 | 133 | 117 | 111 |
| Aug 27, 2025 | 133 | 116 | 110 |
| Aug 26, 2025 | 132 | 116 | 110 |
| Aug 25, 2025 | 134 | 115 | 110 |
| Aug 22, 2025 | 132 | 115 | 110 |
| Aug 21, 2025 | 131 | 112 | 108 |
| Aug 20, 2025 | 130 | 112 | 109 |
| Aug 19, 2025 | 131 | 113 | 109 |
| Aug 18, 2025 | 132 | 115 | 110 |
| Aug 14, 2025 | 134 | 117 | 110 |
| Aug 13, 2025 | 134 | 117 | 110 |
| Aug 12, 2025 | 133 | 116 | 110 |
| Aug 11, 2025 | 134 | 113 | 109 |
| Aug 8, 2025 | 134 | 113 | 109 |
| Aug 7, 2025 | 134 | 112 | 108 |
| Aug 6, 2025 | 133 | 110 | 108 |
| Aug 5, 2025 | 133 | 111 | 107 |
| Aug 4, 2025 | 131 | 112 | 108 |
| Aug 1, 2025 | 130 | 110 | 106 |
| Jul 31, 2025 | 135 | 112 | 108 |
| Jul 30, 2025 | 136 | 115 | 108 |
| Jul 29, 2025 | 135 | 114 | 109 |
| Jul 28, 2025 | 134 | 114 | 109 |
| Jul 25, 2025 | 133 | 112 | 109 |
| Jul 24, 2025 | 133 | 112 | 108 |
| Jul 23, 2025 | 133 | 112 | 108 |
| Jul 22, 2025 | 132 | 112 | 108 |
| Jul 21, 2025 | 134 | 114 | 107 |
| Jul 18, 2025 | 133 | 114 | 107 |
| Jul 17, 2025 | 133 | 114 | 107 |
| Jul 16, 2025 | 133 | 113 | 107 |
| Jul 15, 2025 | 134 | 114 | 106 |
| Jul 14, 2025 | 134 | 112 | 107 |
| Jul 11, 2025 | 132 | 113 | 107 |
| Jul 10, 2025 | 133 | 114 | 107 |
| Jul 9, 2025 | 131 | 113 | 107 |
| Jul 8, 2025 | 130 | 112 | 106 |
| Jul 7, 2025 | 128 | 110 | 106 |
| Jul 3, 2025 | 130 | 112 | 107 |
| Jul 2, 2025 | 128 | 112 | 106 |
| Jul 1, 2025 | 129 | 110 | 106 |
| Jun 30, 2025 | 128 | 110 | 106 |
| Jun 27, 2025 | 127 | 110 | 105 |
| Jun 26, 2025 | 128 | 110 | 105 |
| Jun 25, 2025 | 130 | 109 | 104 |
| Jun 24, 2025 | 129 | 108 | 104 |
| Jun 23, 2025 | 126 | 104 | 103 |
| Jun 20, 2025 | 126 | 104 | 102 |
| Jun 18, 2025 | 124 | 105 | 102 |
| Jun 17, 2025 | 123 | 104 | 102 |
| Jun 16, 2025 | 123 | 105 | 103 |
| Jun 13, 2025 | 121 | 102 | 102 |
| Jun 12, 2025 | 122 | 104 | 103 |
| Jun 11, 2025 | 121 | 104 | 103 |
| Jun 10, 2025 | 120 | 104 | 103 |
| Jun 9, 2025 | 119 | 102 | 102 |
| Jun 5, 2025 | 117 | 100 | 101 |
| Jun 4, 2025 | 116 | 100 | 102 |
| Jun 2, 2025 | 112 | 96 | 101 |
| May 30, 2025 | 112 | 95 | 101 |
| May 29, 2025 | 113 | 97 | 101 |
| May 28, 2025 | 111 | 96 | 100 |
| May 27, 2025 | 110 | 97 | 101 |
| May 23, 2025 | 108 | 94 | 99 |
| May 22, 2025 | 108 | 95 | 100 |
| May 21, 2025 | 109 | 96 | 100 |
| May 20, 2025 | 108 | 97 | 101 |
| May 19, 2025 | 108 | 98 | 102 |
| May 16, 2025 | 110 | 98 | 102 |
| May 15, 2025 | 109 | 98 | 101 |
| May 14, 2025 | 110 | 99 | 100 |
| May 13, 2025 | 109 | 98 | 100 |
| May 12, 2025 | 109 | 95 | 100 |
| May 9, 2025 | 107 | 89 | 96 |
| May 8, 2025 | 108 | 88 | 96 |
| May 7, 2025 | 107 | 87 | 96 |
| May 2, 2025 | 107 | 88 | 97 |
| Apr 30, 2025 | 107 | 84 | 95 |
| Apr 29, 2025 | 107 | 84 | 95 |
| Apr 28, 2025 | 106 | 84 | 94 |
| Apr 25, 2025 | 106 | 85 | 94 |
| Apr 24, 2025 | 105 | 84 | 94 |
| Apr 23, 2025 | 105 | 79 | 92 |
| Apr 22, 2025 | 104 | 76 | 90 |
| Apr 21, 2025 | 104 | 75 | 88 |
| Apr 17, 2025 | 103 | 76 | 90 |
| Apr 16, 2025 | 102 | 77 | 90 |
| Apr 15, 2025 | 103 | 80 | 92 |
| Apr 14, 2025 | 102 | 80 | 92 |
| Apr 11, 2025 | 101 | 80 | 91 |
| Apr 10, 2025 | 102 | 78 | 90 |
| Apr 9, 2025 | 96 | 84 | 93 |
| Apr 8, 2025 | 97 | 71 | 85 |
| Apr 7, 2025 | 97 | 74 | 86 |
| Apr 4, 2025 | 103 | 72 | 86 |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 104 | 78 | 92 |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 104 | 86 | 97 |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 105 | 85 | 96 |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 103 | 85 | 96 |
| Mar 28, 2025 | 107 | 85 | 95 |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 109 | 88 | 97 |
| Mar 26, 2025 | 110 | 90 | 97 |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 109 | 93 | 98 |
| Mar 24, 2025 | 110 | 94 | 98 |
| Mar 21, 2025 | 110 | 91 | 97 |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 110 | 92 | 96 |
| Mar 19, 2025 | 110 | 92 | 97 |
| Mar 18, 2025 | 109 | 91 | 96 |
| Mar 17, 2025 | 109 | 93 | 97 |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 107 | 92 | 96 |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 107 | 89 | 94 |
| Mar 12, 2025 | 107 | 89 | 95 |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 106 | 87 | 95 |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 107 | 88 | 96 |
| Mar 7, 2025 | 107 | 92 | 98 |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 107 | 89 | 98 |
| Mar 5, 2025 | 107 | 94 | 100 |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 105 | 92 | 98 |
| Feb 28, 2025 | 106 | 95 | 102 |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 109 | 93 | 100 |
| Feb 26, 2025 | 110 | 99 | 102 |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 110 | 97 | 102 |
| Feb 24, 2025 | 110 | 100 | 102 |
| Feb 21, 2025 | 111 | 102 | 102 |
| Feb 20, 2025 | 111 | 106 | 104 |
| Feb 19, 2025 | 111 | 106 | 105 |
| Feb 18, 2025 | 110 | 104 | 104 |
| Feb 14, 2025 | 108 | 103 | 104 |
| Feb 13, 2025 | 108 | 103 | 104 |
| Feb 12, 2025 | 106 | 101 | 103 |
| Feb 11, 2025 | 106 | 101 | 103 |
| Feb 10, 2025 | 105 | 101 | 103 |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 105 | 100 | 103 |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 106 | 101 | 104 |
| Feb 5, 2025 | 105 | 101 | 103 |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 103 | 99 | 103 |
| Feb 3, 2025 | 102 | 98 | 102 |
| Jan 31, 2025 | 105 | 100 | 103 |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 106 | 106 | 104 |
| Jan 23, 2025 | 105 | 108 | 104 |
| Jan 22, 2025 | 106 | 109 | 104 |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 105 | 107 | 103 |
| Jan 17, 2025 | 105 | 106 | 102 |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 105 | 103 | 101 |
| Jan 15, 2025 | 104 | 103 | 101 |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 104 | 100 | 100 |
| Jan 13, 2025 | 104 | 100 | 99 |
| Jan 10, 2025 | 105 | 100 | 99 |
| Jan 8, 2025 | 105 | 103 | 101 |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 104 | 104 | 101 |
| Jan 6, 2025 | 104 | 106 | 102 |
| Jan 3, 2025 | 102 | 103 | 101 |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
On U.S. leverage, the video's numbers check out. Margin debt at FINRA member firms reached a record $1.50 trillion in June and stood at $1.48 trillion in September, FINRA data show. Its 12-month growth peaked at 54% in May. Since 1998, growth above 50% has happened only around March 2000, July 2007 and the 2021 run-up, each within about a year of a major market top. The 10 largest stocks make up about 42% of the S&P 500 by market value, based on Friday's closing values. And the Fed did raise rates in September: the effective federal funds rate rose to 3.88% from 3.63% on Sept 17, according to New York Fed data.
U.S. margin debt: level and 12-month growth
Debit balances in customers' securities margin accounts, FINRA member firms
Monthly. Latest: September 2026. Dashed lines mark the peaks in the dollar level before the 2000, 2007 and 2022 bear markets, and the latest peak in June 2026.
View the data table
| Month | 12-month change | Margin debt ($ trillions) |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 2026 | +31.4% | $1.48T |
| Aug 2026 | +37.2% | $1.45T |
| Jul 2026 | +38.6% | $1.42T |
| Jun 2026 | +49.0% | $1.50T |
| May 2026 | +53.7% | $1.42T |
| Apr 2026 | +53.3% | $1.30T |
| Mar 2026 | +38.7% | $1.22T |
| Feb 2026 | +36.5% | $1.25T |
| Jan 2026 | +36.5% | $1.28T |
| Dec 2025 | +36.3% | $1.23T |
| Nov 2025 | +36.3% | $1.21T |
| Oct 2025 | +45.2% | $1.18T |
| Sep 2025 | +38.5% | $1.13T |
| Aug 2025 | +32.9% | $1.06T |
| Jul 2025 | +26.1% | $1.02T |
| Jun 2025 | +24.5% | $1.01T |
| May 2025 | +13.8% | $0.92T |
| Apr 2025 | +9.7% | $0.85T |
| Mar 2025 | +12.3% | $0.88T |
| Feb 2025 | +23.6% | $0.92T |
| Jan 2025 | +33.5% | $0.94T |
| Dec 2024 | +28.3% | $0.90T |
| Nov 2024 | +34.8% | $0.89T |
| Oct 2024 | +28.3% | $0.81T |
| Sep 2024 | +19.4% | $0.81T |
| Aug 2024 | +15.7% | $0.80T |
| Jul 2024 | +14.2% | $0.81T |
| Jun 2024 | +18.8% | $0.81T |
| May 2024 | +25.7% | $0.81T |
| Apr 2024 | +22.7% | $0.78T |
| Mar 2024 | +21.5% | $0.78T |
| Feb 2024 | +19.0% | $0.74T |
| Jan 2024 | +9.5% | $0.70T |
| Dec 2023 | +15.5% | $0.70T |
| Nov 2023 | +2.7% | $0.66T |
| Oct 2023 | −2.2% | $0.64T |
| Sep 2023 | +2.5% | $0.68T |
| Aug 2023 | +0.2% | $0.69T |
| Jul 2023 | +1.9% | $0.71T |
| Jun 2023 | −0.3% | $0.68T |
| May 2023 | −14.4% | $0.64T |
| Apr 2023 | −18.2% | $0.63T |
| Mar 2023 | −19.3% | $0.65T |
| Feb 2023 | −25.2% | $0.62T |
| Jan 2023 | −22.7% | $0.64T |
| Dec 2022 | −33.3% | $0.61T |
| Nov 2022 | −29.9% | $0.64T |
| Oct 2022 | −30.6% | $0.65T |
| Sep 2022 | −26.5% | $0.66T |
| Aug 2022 | −24.5% | $0.69T |
| Jul 2022 | −17.5% | $0.70T |
| Jun 2022 | −22.5% | $0.68T |
| May 2022 | −12.6% | $0.75T |
| Apr 2022 | −8.8% | $0.77T |
| Mar 2022 | −2.8% | $0.80T |
| Feb 2022 | +2.7% | $0.83T |
| Jan 2022 | +3.9% | $0.83T |
| Dec 2021 | +17.0% | $0.91T |
| Nov 2021 | +27.2% | $0.92T |
| Oct 2021 | +41.9% | $0.94T |
| Sep 2021 | +38.0% | $0.90T |
| Aug 2021 | +41.2% | $0.91T |
| Jul 2021 | +37.6% | $0.84T |
| Jun 2021 | +50.9% | $0.88T |
| May 2021 | +55.9% | $0.86T |
| Apr 2021 | +61.5% | $0.85T |
| Mar 2021 | +71.6% | $0.82T |
| Feb 2021 | +49.3% | $0.81T |
| Jan 2021 | +42.1% | $0.80T |
| Dec 2020 | +34.3% | $0.78T |
| Nov 2020 | +28.2% | $0.72T |
| Oct 2020 | +18.9% | $0.66T |
| Sep 2020 | +17.7% | $0.65T |
| Aug 2020 | +14.3% | $0.65T |
| Jul 2020 | +1.9% | $0.61T |
| Jun 2020 | −2.0% | $0.58T |
| May 2020 | −2.8% | $0.55T |
| Apr 2020 | −10.9% | $0.53T |
| Mar 2020 | −16.5% | $0.48T |
| Feb 2020 | −6.2% | $0.55T |
| Jan 2020 | −1.2% | $0.56T |
| Dec 2019 | +4.5% | $0.58T |
| Nov 2019 | −4.9% | $0.56T |
| Oct 2019 | −8.7% | $0.56T |
| Sep 2019 | −14.2% | $0.56T |
| Aug 2019 | −13.4% | $0.56T |
| Jul 2019 | −7.8% | $0.60T |
| Jun 2019 | −7.8% | $0.60T |
| May 2019 | −15.0% | $0.57T |
| Apr 2019 | −9.7% | $0.59T |
| Mar 2019 | −11.0% | $0.57T |
| Feb 2019 | −9.9% | $0.58T |
| Jan 2019 | −14.6% | $0.57T |
| Dec 2018 | −13.8% | $0.55T |
| Nov 2018 | −5.6% | $0.59T |
| Oct 2018 | 0.0% | $0.61T |
| Sep 2018 | +6.9% | $0.65T |
| Aug 2018 | +9.4% | $0.65T |
| Jul 2018 | +9.8% | $0.65T |
| Jun 2018 | +10.7% | $0.65T |
| May 2018 | +14.8% | $0.67T |
| Apr 2018 | +10.4% | $0.65T |
| Mar 2018 | +11.7% | $0.65T |
| Feb 2018 | +13.4% | $0.65T |
| Jan 2018 | +20.3% | $0.67T |
| Dec 2017 | +21.4% | $0.64T |
| Nov 2017 | +16.2% | $0.63T |
| Oct 2017 | +16.1% | $0.61T |
| Sep 2017 | +12.2% | $0.61T |
| Aug 2017 | +16.9% | $0.60T |
| Jul 2017 | +15.8% | $0.59T |
| Jun 2017 | +19.8% | $0.58T |
| May 2017 | +19.0% | $0.58T |
| Apr 2017 | +19.3% | $0.59T |
| Mar 2017 | +19.4% | $0.58T |
| Feb 2017 | +19.9% | $0.57T |
| Jan 2017 | +13.6% | $0.55T |
| Dec 2016 | +5.2% | $0.53T |
| Nov 2016 | +4.8% | $0.54T |
| Oct 2016 | +1.9% | $0.52T |
| Sep 2016 | +8.7% | $0.54T |
| Aug 2016 | −1.1% | $0.51T |
| Jul 2016 | −3.3% | $0.51T |
| Jun 2016 | −11.0% | $0.49T |
| May 2016 | −9.6% | $0.49T |
| Apr 2016 | −10.0% | $0.49T |
| Mar 2016 | −6.6% | $0.48T |
| Feb 2016 | −6.1% | $0.47T |
| Jan 2016 | +0.3% | $0.49T |
| Dec 2015 | +1.6% | $0.50T |
| Nov 2015 | +3.8% | $0.52T |
| Oct 2015 | +4.3% | $0.51T |
| Sep 2015 | −1.3% | $0.50T |
| Aug 2015 | +3.0% | $0.52T |
| Jul 2015 | +6.4% | $0.53T |
| Jun 2015 | +9.1% | $0.55T |
| May 2015 | +13.9% | $0.54T |
| Apr 2015 | +15.7% | $0.55T |
| Mar 2015 | +6.2% | $0.52T |
| Feb 2015 | +0.6% | $0.51T |
| Jan 2015 | −0.3% | $0.49T |
| Dec 2014 | +3.6% | $0.50T |
| Nov 2014 | +8.8% | $0.50T |
| Oct 2014 | +10.8% | $0.49T |
| Sep 2014 | +16.4% | $0.50T |
| Aug 2014 | +20.9% | $0.50T |
| Jul 2014 | +21.0% | $0.50T |
| Jun 2014 | +23.2% | $0.50T |
| May 2014 | +18.4% | $0.47T |
| Apr 2014 | +16.3% | $0.47T |
| Mar 2014 | +20.8% | $0.49T |
| Feb 2014 | +28.6% | $0.50T |
| Jan 2014 | +25.6% | $0.49T |
| Dec 2013 | +34.8% | $0.48T |
| Nov 2013 | +29.9% | $0.46T |
| Oct 2013 | +30.0% | $0.45T |
| Sep 2013 | +27.6% | $0.43T |
| Aug 2013 | +29.4% | $0.41T |
| Jul 2013 | +31.4% | $0.41T |
| Jun 2013 | +27.0% | $0.41T |
| May 2013 | +27.4% | $0.40T |
| Apr 2013 | +21.9% | $0.41T |
| Mar 2013 | +22.1% | $0.40T |
| Feb 2013 | +20.8% | $0.39T |
| Jan 2013 | +25.3% | $0.39T |
| Dec 2012 | +17.7% | $0.35T |
| Nov 2012 | +15.6% | $0.35T |
| Oct 2012 | +8.0% | $0.34T |
| Sep 2012 | +13.7% | $0.34T |
| Aug 2012 | +3.7% | $0.32T |
| Jul 2012 | −9.0% | $0.31T |
| Jun 2012 | −7.0% | $0.32T |
| May 2012 | −11.4% | $0.32T |
| Apr 2012 | −7.1% | $0.34T |
| Mar 2012 | −6.9% | $0.33T |
| Feb 2012 | −7.4% | $0.32T |
| Jan 2012 | −5.2% | $0.31T |
| Dec 2011 | −3.8% | $0.30T |
| Nov 2011 | −1.7% | $0.30T |
| Oct 2011 | +4.5% | $0.32T |
| Sep 2011 | +3.4% | $0.30T |
| Aug 2011 | +15.1% | $0.31T |
| Jul 2011 | +28.8% | $0.34T |
| Jun 2011 | +31.2% | $0.34T |
| May 2011 | +32.5% | $0.36T |
| Apr 2011 | +22.1% | $0.36T |
| Mar 2011 | +27.9% | $0.35T |
| Feb 2011 | +32.4% | $0.35T |
| Jan 2011 | +22.7% | $0.33T |
| Dec 2010 | +19.5% | $0.31T |
| Nov 2010 | +23.2% | $0.31T |
| Oct 2010 | +14.3% | $0.30T |
| Sep 2010 | +13.6% | $0.29T |
| Aug 2010 | +13.6% | $0.27T |
| Jul 2010 | +16.9% | $0.27T |
| Jun 2010 | +21.2% | $0.26T |
| May 2010 | +25.3% | $0.27T |
| Apr 2010 | +42.1% | $0.30T |
| Mar 2010 | +36.2% | $0.28T |
| Feb 2010 | +32.1% | $0.26T |
| Jan 2010 | +30.0% | $0.27T |
| Dec 2009 | +24.8% | $0.26T |
| Nov 2009 | +10.4% | $0.25T |
| Oct 2009 | −4.4% | $0.27T |
| Sep 2009 | −26.5% | $0.25T |
| Aug 2009 | −27.3% | $0.24T |
| Jul 2009 | −33.4% | $0.23T |
| Jun 2009 | −37.4% | $0.22T |
| May 2009 | −37.2% | $0.21T |
| Apr 2009 | −37.4% | $0.21T |
| Mar 2009 | −41.6% | $0.20T |
| Feb 2009 | −47.1% | $0.20T |
| Jan 2009 | −43.9% | $0.20T |
| Dec 2008 | −40.8% | $0.21T |
| Nov 2008 | −40.1% | $0.23T |
| Oct 2008 | −26.4% | $0.28T |
| Sep 2008 | −3.7% | $0.35T |
| Aug 2008 | −10.4% | $0.33T |
| Jul 2008 | −17.6% | $0.34T |
| Jun 2008 | −15.1% | $0.35T |
| May 2008 | −10.6% | $0.34T |
| Apr 2008 | −2.9% | $0.33T |
| Mar 2008 | +10.0% | $0.35T |
| Feb 2008 | +17.4% | $0.38T |
| Jan 2008 | +17.4% | $0.37T |
| Dec 2007 | +17.1% | $0.35T |
| Nov 2007 | +28.7% | $0.38T |
| Oct 2007 | +40.8% | $0.38T |
| Sep 2007 | +37.2% | $0.36T |
| Aug 2007 | +45.4% | $0.36T |
| Jul 2007 | +62.6% | $0.42T |
| Jun 2007 | +62.4% | $0.41T |
| May 2007 | +49.6% | $0.38T |
| Apr 2007 | +29.0% | $0.34T |
| Mar 2007 | +22.5% | $0.32T |
| Feb 2007 | +28.7% | $0.32T |
| Jan 2007 | +21.8% | $0.31T |
| Dec 2006 | +24.2% | $0.30T |
| Nov 2006 | +21.4% | $0.29T |
| Oct 2006 | +11.6% | $0.27T |
| Sep 2006 | +7.0% | $0.26T |
| Aug 2006 | +7.8% | $0.25T |
| Jul 2006 | +9.6% | $0.26T |
| Jun 2006 | +12.2% | $0.25T |
| May 2006 | +16.5% | $0.26T |
| Apr 2006 | +21.9% | $0.27T |
| Mar 2006 | +14.3% | $0.26T |
| Feb 2006 | +11.9% | $0.25T |
| Jan 2006 | +16.2% | $0.26T |
| Dec 2005 | +12.2% | $0.24T |
| Nov 2005 | +15.1% | $0.24T |
| Oct 2005 | +21.1% | $0.24T |
| Sep 2005 | +26.3% | $0.24T |
| Aug 2005 | +23.2% | $0.23T |
| Jul 2005 | +24.4% | $0.23T |
| Jun 2005 | +15.5% | $0.22T |
| May 2005 | +13.2% | $0.22T |
| Apr 2005 | +9.4% | $0.22T |
| Mar 2005 | +18.5% | $0.23T |
| Feb 2005 | +17.2% | $0.22T |
| Jan 2005 | +16.2% | $0.22T |
| Dec 2004 | +19.9% | $0.22T |
| Nov 2004 | +15.6% | $0.21T |
| Oct 2004 | +12.9% | $0.20T |
| Sep 2004 | +13.1% | $0.19T |
| Aug 2004 | +12.3% | $0.19T |
| Jul 2004 | +7.7% | $0.19T |
| Jun 2004 | +15.3% | $0.19T |
| May 2004 | +26.1% | $0.19T |
| Apr 2004 | +38.8% | $0.20T |
| Mar 2004 | +32.7% | $0.19T |
| Feb 2004 | +35.5% | $0.19T |
| Jan 2004 | +34.0% | $0.19T |
| Dec 2003 | +30.1% | $0.18T |
| Nov 2003 | +30.9% | $0.18T |
| Oct 2003 | +26.5% | $0.17T |
| Sep 2003 | +25.8% | $0.17T |
| Aug 2003 | +20.2% | $0.17T |
| Jul 2003 | +21.2% | $0.17T |
| Jun 2003 | +9.3% | $0.17T |
| May 2003 | −2.6% | $0.15T |
| Apr 2003 | −10.0% | $0.14T |
| Mar 2003 | −9.9% | $0.14T |
| Feb 2003 | −9.3% | $0.14T |
| Jan 2003 | −12.1% | $0.14T |
| Dec 2002 | −13.1% | $0.14T |
| Nov 2002 | −12.5% | $0.14T |
| Oct 2002 | −9.0% | $0.14T |
| Sep 2002 | −13.8% | $0.14T |
| Aug 2002 | −17.8% | $0.14T |
| Jul 2002 | −17.1% | $0.14T |
| Jun 2002 | −14.3% | $0.15T |
| May 2002 | −13.8% | $0.16T |
| Apr 2002 | −9.7% | $0.16T |
| Mar 2002 | −8.4% | $0.16T |
| Feb 2002 | −22.1% | $0.15T |
| Jan 2002 | −22.9% | $0.16T |
| Dec 2001 | −23.7% | $0.16T |
| Nov 2001 | −33.0% | $0.16T |
| Oct 2001 | −39.3% | $0.15T |
| Sep 2001 | −41.6% | $0.16T |
| Aug 2001 | −36.1% | $0.17T |
| Jul 2001 | −34.1% | $0.17T |
| Jun 2001 | −32.1% | $0.18T |
| May 2001 | −28.7% | $0.18T |
| Apr 2001 | −34.5% | $0.18T |
| Mar 2001 | −41.7% | $0.17T |
| Feb 2001 | −30.0% | $0.20T |
| Jan 2001 | −19.9% | $0.21T |
| Dec 2000 | −13.1% | $0.21T |
| Nov 2000 | +9.0% | $0.24T |
| Oct 2000 | +29.2% | $0.25T |
| Sep 2000 | +42.4% | $0.27T |
| Aug 2000 | +41.3% | $0.27T |
| Jul 2000 | +39.2% | $0.26T |
| Jun 2000 | +40.9% | $0.26T |
| May 2000 | +35.2% | $0.26T |
| Apr 2000 | +45.8% | $0.27T |
| Mar 2000 | +80.5% | $0.30T |
| Feb 2000 | +74.5% | $0.28T |
| Jan 2000 | +60.4% | $0.26T |
| Dec 1999 | +62.8% | $0.24T |
| Nov 1999 | +46.8% | $0.22T |
| Oct 1999 | +40.4% | $0.19T |
| Sep 1999 | +31.3% | $0.19T |
| Aug 1999 | +20.4% | $0.19T |
| Jul 1999 | +17.7% | $0.19T |
| Jun 1999 | +21.6% | $0.19T |
| May 1999 | +26.4% | $0.19T |
| Apr 1999 | +25.7% | $0.18T |
| Mar 1999 | +13.4% | $0.17T |
| Feb 1999 | +15.3% | $0.16T |
| Jan 1999 | +22.1% | $0.16T |
| Dec 1998 | +13.0% | $0.15T |
| Nov 1998 | +12.0% | $0.15T |
| Oct 1998 | +2.9% | $0.14T |
| Sep 1998 | +9.5% | $0.14T |
| Aug 1998 | +25.3% | $0.16T |
| Jul 1998 | +32.9% | $0.16T |
| Jun 1998 | +29.9% | $0.15T |
| May 1998 | +35.3% | $0.15T |
| Apr 1998 | +42.5% | $0.15T |
| Mar 1998 | +39.8% | $0.15T |
| Feb 1998 | +36.0% | $0.14T |
| Jan 1998 | +28.6% | $0.13T |
The video's conclusion is more careful than its headline. It argues that rate hikes plus leverage are dangerous, but that the trend matters for timing. The Fed began raising rates in June 1999, and the Nasdaq 100 more than doubled before peaking in March 2000. In 2022, the S&P 500 was already below its 200-day average when the Fed started hiking. Today the S&P 500 is 4.6% above its 200-day average and the Nasdaq 100 4.0% above, though both are now below their 50-day averages. On that measure the trend is weakening but intact, and the chip index is the part of the market already testing its long-term line.
Korea's week added to the pressure. The KOSPI finished −2.1% for the week and −20.8% since Oct 2, and SK hynix halted plans for a U.S. listing of its memory unit Solidigm on Friday.
The most telling Korean story was a small one. Elice, an AI cloud and modular data center company, priced its KOSDAQ IPO at 90,500 won after institutional orders of about 389 times the shares on offer, then closed its first day on Tuesday 32% lower. The plunge made headlines abroad. CoreWeave and Nebius traded more than 5% lower at one point the same day, and Jim Cramer pointed to the deal as the kind of flop that drags down other stocks, The Korea Times reported. The rebound drew far less attention. Elice gained 29.9% on Wednesday and 17.2% on Thursday and ended the week at 94,200 won, above its IPO price, about 53% above its first-day close and about 67% above its first-day low of 56,500 won. Its market value is about 1 trillion won, roughly $770 million, a fraction of the U.S. neoclouds it was being compared with. That a company this small could move sentiment in both markets, and that only its fall made the news, says a lot about how nervous AI investors have become.
Elice's first week on the KOSDAQ
Closing price vs. the 90,500-won IPO price, Korean won
The debut-day close is derived from the next day's reported gain. Intraday low on the first day: 56,500 won. Market value at the Oct 22 close: about 1.04 trillion won, roughly $770 million.
View the data table
| Day | Closing price (won) |
|---|---|
| Fri, Oct 23 | 94,200 |
| Thu, Oct 22 | 93,600 |
| Wed, Oct 21 | 79,900 |
| Tue, Oct 20 (debut) | 61,500 |
| IPO price | 90,500 |
Around the Market
Among the Magnificent Seven, Meta (−9.4%) and Alphabet (−6.0%) were the weakest for the week, and Tesla (+4.9%) and Apple (+1.2%) the strongest. The week's best performers among S&P 500 companies worth more than $50 billion were CrowdStrike (+13.3%), ServiceNow (+12.0%) and Palo Alto Networks (+11.3%). The security names were helped by a scramble to patch critical flaws in the PHP programming language, and ServiceNow by a higher Bank of America price target ahead of its report. The worst were Comfort Systems USA (−19.3%), Howmet Aerospace (−15.9%), Quanta Services (−13.5%) and Lam Research (−12.8%).
AT&T (−10.7%) and T-Mobile (−7.9%) had a rough week after SpaceX's results on Tuesday and a Bloomberg report on Thursday that it is seeking access to 80,000 U.S. cell sites. Crown Castle, one of the companies SpaceX approached, finished the week at +4.5%.
In commodities, gold ended the week −4.1% as the 10-year yield stayed near 5% and the odds of a December rate hike held around 80%. U.S. natural gas was −15.7%. The 10-year yield ended at 4.988%, 11 basis points lower for the week, and the VIX closed at 19.45. After Friday's close, Moody's kept France's rating at Aa3 with a negative outlook, when most analysts had expected a downgrade, Reuters reported.
Earnings season remains solid on the surface. With 24% of S&P 500 companies reporting, 83% have beaten profit estimates, but by an aggregate of only 2.1%, against a five-year average of 7.5%, FactSet reported. The blended growth rate for the third quarter is 29.5%, led by energy and technology.
My Take
The market is being careful this week for more than the hyperscaler reports. A hold at the FOMC is widely expected, but if the vote isn't unanimous, the market could have another fit. On July 29, when three officials dissented in favor of a hike, Forbes reported, the Nasdaq 100 closed −2.06%, even if a chip selloff was already under way that month. And nobody knows what Warsh will say at his press conference.
I keep thinking about 2018, Powell's first year as chair. Aggressive hikes, an escalating U.S.-China trade war and slowing growth at big tech were all in the background, but the trigger was Powell's Oct 3 comment that rates were "a long way" from neutral, CNBC reported. From that day's close at 2,925.51 to Christmas Eve, the S&P 500 ended at −19.6% and the Nasdaq Composite at −22.8%. Stocks only began to recover after Jan 4, 2019, when Powell promised the Fed would be patient, TechCrunch reported, and by the end of April the S&P 500 was 25% above its Christmas Eve low. I'm not saying Warsh will repeat that mistake, but with the market this nervous, there is no telling how his words will land, so caution is unavoidable.
The Week Ahead
The coming week brings three of the four largest AI spenders, Oracle's investor day, a Fed decision and the third-quarter GDP report. Dates and times are from company announcements and schedules compiled by StockTitan:
- Monday, Oct 26: Verizon before the open. Cadence Design Systems and Nucor after the close.
- Tuesday, Oct 27: Coca-Cola, Boeing, UPS, American Tower and PayPal before the open. Visa, Seagate, Baker Hughes and Teradyne after the close.
- Wednesday, Oct 28: GE Vernova and Vertiv before the open. Oracle's investor day at Oracle AI World, webcast from 10:55 a.m. CT (11:55 a.m. ET), the company said. The Fed's decision at the end of the October 27-28 meeting at 2 p.m. ET. Alphabet, Microsoft, ServiceNow, T-Mobile, KLA and Fortinet after the close.
- Thursday, Oct 29: Third-quarter GDP and September personal income and spending, including the PCE price index, at 8:30 a.m. ET, according to the BEA. Eli Lilly, Mastercard, Merck, Caterpillar and Quanta Services before the open. Amazon, Intel, Sandisk and Starbucks after the close.
- Friday, Oct 30: Exxon Mobil, Chevron, AbbVie and Colgate-Palmolive before the open.
Fed funds futures put the odds of a hike at the October 27-28 meeting near 8% and the odds of at least one hike by December near 82%, based on an own calculation in the FedWatch style. For the hyperscalers, the key numbers are capital spending guidance for 2027, cloud growth against that spending, and any new detail on funding. For Oracle, investors will want to know how it plans to fund a build-out that has left its free cash flow at −$28.7 billion over the past 12 months.
Bottom Line
The AI bubble debate this week was really two debates. On valuations, the data do not show a bubble: tech's earnings estimates rose far faster than its stock prices this year, and its multiple is well below its own history. On capital spending and credit, the warning signs are real: Meta and Alphabet spent more than their operating cash flow in their latest quarters, some AI bonds trade like junk, Korea's chip-heavy market has already crashed, and U.S. margin debt has grown at a pace seen only before past tops.
Hedge funds took the hit first because they were crowded into the same trade, and the semiconductor index is now testing a line that has worked as support only when the demand cycle was still rising. Next week's reports from Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon, along with Warsh's press conference on Wednesday, will say more about that cycle than any chart, and with Brent near $117, even the defensive sectors no longer offer much shelter if they disappoint.
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