The Anthropic IPO filing gave the AI trade the numbers it had been missing. The public S-1, posted before Monday’s open, showed the maker of Claude earning more in revenue than it spent on compute in the second quarter and turning an operating profit for the first time. Chip stocks led the rebound, and the Nasdaq 100 closed +1.09%.
The same morning brought two reminders of what the AI build-out costs. Meta laid out a plan to raise up to $95 billion in equity, and Elon Musk warned that most of the small cloud companies renting out AI chips will not survive the credit squeeze. In Brazil, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s surprise re-election set off a historic selloff in the country’s stocks and currency.
Index Performance
Cross-Asset Snapshot
A Rebound Carried by a Few Large Stocks
The S&P 500 closed at 7,676.77, a +0.70% gain or +53.09 points. The Nasdaq Composite ended at 26,169.38 (+0.82%), the Dow at 52,361.58 (+0.28%, +146.42 points) and the Russell 2000 at 2,786.42 (+0.38%). Of the 500 stocks in the daily map, 289 rose and 211 fell.
Technology carried the day. The tech sector ETF (XLK) closed +1.69% and industrials +1.42%, while communication services (XLC) ended at −1.57% as Meta and Alphabet slipped. Consumer staples (−0.34%) and utilities were flat to lower, a reversal of the defensive rotation that ran through most of October.
The gain was narrow. Weighting each stock’s move by its market value shows Nvidia, Tesla and Microsoft adding about 38 basis points of the S&P 500’s roughly 72 basis point rise. Apple, Alphabet and Meta took away about 18. The average S&P 500 stock, counted equally, ended +0.37%, about half the index’s gain.
Three stocks did half the work
Contribution to the S&P 500's change on Oct 26, basis points (weight × price change)
Weights use each company's market value in the daily map data (Alphabet counted once, at its full market value), so the total, about 72 bp, differs slightly from the index's official 0.70% gain. Top eight and bottom five contributors shown.
View the data table
| Contribution | |
|---|---|
| Nvidia (+2.39%) | +17.8 bp |
| Tesla (+5.21%) | +11.6 bp |
| Microsoft (+1.54%) | +8.7 bp |
| Broadcom (+2.33%) | +5.3 bp |
| Micron (+2.98%) | +4.4 bp |
| AMD (+2.80%) | +3.5 bp |
| Intel (+4.04%) | +2.8 bp |
| Cisco (+3.51%) | +2.2 bp |
| Mastercard (−1.62%) | −1.2 bp |
| Merck (−3.21%) | −1.6 bp |
| Meta (−1.88%) | −4.4 bp |
| Alphabet (−1.06%) | −5.7 bp |
| Apple (−1.10%) | −7.9 bp |
A broad relief rally would have lifted the equal-weight average as much as the index. Monday looked more like a targeted bet: buy the chipmakers that sell to Anthropic and the other model builders, and stay cautious on the platforms that have to fund the spending.
What the Anthropic IPO Filing Shows
Anthropic plans to list on the Nasdaq under the ticker "ANT," The Wall Street Journal reported, and could raise $100 billion or more at a valuation of $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion as soon as the week of November 16. The price range and share count were left blank.
The S-1 filed with the SEC shows revenue of $16.3 billion in the first half of 2026, up about 1,300% from a year earlier. The reported net loss for the half was $80.7 billion, but $72.4 billion of that came from marking up convertible notes and other instruments as the company's valuation rose. Operating cash flow was positive at $3.9 billion, against an outflow of $1.5 billion a year earlier. As of June 30, Anthropic held $112.4 billion in cash and $19.3 billion in short-term investments.
The quarterly table is where the filing answers the question that has hung over the AI trade all month: whether the spending earns anything. In the second quarter, Anthropic booked $11.56 billion of revenue against $5.56 billion of compute and infrastructure expense. That works out to $2.08 of revenue for each dollar of compute, up from $0.40 in the first quarter of 2025 and $1.40 in the first quarter of this year. The company posted an operating profit of $974 million in the quarter, after losses in each of the five before it.
Anthropic's revenue overtook its compute bill
Quarterly revenue vs. compute and infrastructure expense, $ millions
Compute and infrastructure is the operating expense line Anthropic reports in its S-1; it reflects compute used in each quarter, not cash committed for future capacity. Revenue ÷ compute is a simple ratio of the two lines, calculated from the filing. The S-1 leaves several figures blank, including run-rate revenue as of October 31 and the total of its compute purchase commitments.
View the data table
| Quarter | Revenue | Compute and infrastructure expense |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $11,555M | $5,558M |
| Q1 2026 | $4,731M | $3,387M |
| Q4 2025 | $2,040M | $2,945M |
| Q3 2025 | $1,382M | $2,047M |
| Q2 2025 | $787M | $1,390M |
| Q1 2025 | $376M | $944M |
Customer counts point the same way. Customers paying at least $100,000 a year grew from more than 950 to more than 11,900 between September 2025 and September 2026, according to the filing.
The ratio flatters the picture in one respect. The compute line is what Anthropic used in each quarter, not what it has committed to buy. The filing describes purchase commitments and leases stretching to 2045 but leaves the dollar totals blank, along with run-rate revenue as of October 31. Those blanks will be filled before the roadshow, and they will say more about the AI build-out's financing than any single quarter. Last week's weekly recap put Anthropic's draft commitments at roughly eight times its run rate.
For the chip industry, the filing reads as a list of customers with money. Anthropic's growth runs on compute bought from cloud providers and chipmakers, and the second-quarter numbers show that demand being paid for with revenue rather than only with new funding rounds.
Meta Turns to Equity, Musk Warns the Neoclouds
Meta's plan arrived in a free writing prospectus before the open. The company is selling about $35 billion of securities now: $22.5 billion of Class A common stock through forward sale agreements and about $12.5 billion of mandatory convertible preferred shares. It then plans an at-the-market program of about $60 billion once its previously announced non-voting Class C shares begin trading. Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom indicated interest in buying up to $5 billion of the common stock between them.
Meta closed −1.88% at $630.56. The full $95 billion equals close to 6% of Meta's market value at Monday's close, and it follows last week's results, when Meta said it may need to raise hundreds of billions of dollars for AI infrastructure. Selling stock rather than bonds spares the balance sheet, but it dilutes existing holders and suggests the company sees limits on how much more it can borrow at a reasonable cost. Chip suppliers buying into the offering also tightens the circular financing that worries investors: the same companies that sell Meta its hardware are helping pay for it.
Musk added to the funding debate on Sunday. He said SpaceX had closed $40 billion of debt to buy GPUs and argued that debt markets have almost shut off credit for companies without meaningful non-AI revenue, TheStreet reported. In his post, he predicted that most of the "200+ neoclouds" face failure or consolidation.
The neocloud stocks took the warning at the open and then reversed. CoreWeave traded −4.2% in the first five minutes, swung to +6.4% by 11:20 a.m. and closed +1.76% at $55.19. Nebius ended at −3.45%, IREN +2.11% and Applied Digital −2.30%. Even after Monday, CoreWeave stands at −39.8% from its October 6 close.
Chip Stocks Lead the Bounce
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed +2.82% at 11,083.47. The index is still −16.1% from its October 6 close and about 4% above the 200-day moving average it touched last Thursday.
Nvidia ended +2.39%, AMD +2.80%, Broadcom +2.33%, Micron +2.98% and Intel +4.04%. Equipment makers followed, with Lam Research +3.2% and Applied Materials +2.7%. Intel also had its own catalyst: New Street Research upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a $125 target, arguing that AI agents are lifting demand for server processors and that supply will stay tight for years, 24/7 Wall St. reported. Intel reports third-quarter results on Thursday.
The buying did not start at the opening bell. Chip stocks drifted lower after the open and bottomed around 10:05 a.m., more than an hour after the S-1 became public. The Nasdaq 100 then climbed for an hour and peaked at 11:20, the same time CoreWeave topped. The afternoon faded slowly as Meta extended its losses, and the Nasdaq 100 gave back more than a quarter of its peak gain.
The rally came after the open, not before it
Change from the Oct 23 close, regular session, Eastern time
Five-minute bars; each point is the price at the start of the bar. Meta announced its $35 billion stock and preferred offering before the open, Elon Musk's warning about neoclouds was posted on Sunday, and Anthropic's S-1 became public at about 9:07 a.m. ET. Iranian state media carried President Pezeshkian's remarks on regional unity shortly after 10 a.m. The last point is matched to the official close.
View the data table
| Time (ET) | CoreWeave | Nvidia | Nasdaq 100 | Meta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:55 ET | +1.76% | +2.39% | +1.09% | −1.88% |
| 15:30 ET | +3.68% | +2.56% | +1.29% | −1.65% |
| 15:00 ET | +3.58% | +2.45% | +1.19% | −1.49% |
| 14:30 ET | +3.65% | +2.38% | +1.29% | −1.46% |
| 14:00 ET | +3.96% | +2.45% | +1.35% | −0.79% |
| 13:30 ET | +5.05% | +2.39% | +1.29% | −0.43% |
| 13:00 ET | +4.77% | +2.48% | +1.31% | +0.04% |
| 12:30 ET | +4.93% | +2.23% | +1.23% | +0.05% |
| 12:00 ET | +5.06% | +2.07% | +1.22% | −0.15% |
| 11:30 ET | +5.82% | +2.42% | +1.45% | +0.24% |
| 11:00 ET | +5.09% | +3.12% | +1.45% | +0.04% |
| 10:30 ET | +1.14% | +1.77% | +0.69% | −0.97% |
| 10:00 ET | −2.47% | +1.89% | +0.42% | −1.61% |
| 09:30 ET | −4.20% | +1.65% | +0.43% | −1.93% |
The analog chipmakers rose even more. Texas Instruments closed +4.72%, NXP Semiconductors +4.64%, Analog Devices +4.31% and Microchip +2.50%. NXP reports on Tuesday after the close. These companies sell mostly into industrial and auto markets, so their gains point to buying that went beyond the AI theme.
Hardware suppliers to data centers joined in. Dell closed +2.33% and Hewlett Packard Enterprise +3.58%. Lumentum was the S&P 500's best performer at +8.19%, with fellow optical maker Coherent +5.83%, and Bloom Energy (+5.49%) and GE Vernova (+4.92%) led the power names.
My Take: Iran Headlines, a Gamma Ceiling and a Week to Trade Smaller
The filing got the credit for Monday, but I'm not convinced it deserves all of it. Anthropic's S-1 went public at about 9:07 a.m. ET, and Nasdaq 100 futures did little with it: they traded as high as 29,336.50 in the 9 a.m. bar, then slipped to 29,165.25 right after the open and were still near 29,180 at 10:05. Much of what the filing showed had already been reported from the confidential draft, including the $16.3 billion of first-half revenue covered in last week's recap. The genuinely new pieces were the quarterly table and the second-quarter operating profit.
What lined up better with the turn was Iran. Shortly after 10 a.m., Iranian state media reported that President Masoud Pezeshkian, meeting Saudi, Turkish and Pakistani officials in Tehran, said Iran would back any agreement that strengthens regional unity and security, the AP reported. Futures went from 29,232.75 at the end of the 10:05 bar to 29,373.25 by the 10:15 bar, and Brent, near $115.95 just before 10 a.m., was trading around $114.90 by 10:10. Chip stocks also had room to bounce on their own. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index touched its 200-day average last Thursday after a −16% slide from its October 6 close, and that level gave dip buyers something to lean on.
On the way up, the rally ran into dealer positioning. My QQQ gamma map, converted to Nasdaq 100 futures levels, was dominated by long-gamma nodes on Monday, the kind that tend to make price bounce rather than run. The day's high, 29,572 around 11 a.m., came just above the 29,558 node, and futures spent the afternoon below it, ending the cash session at 29,445.75. I don't think gamma alone capped the move, though. With the Fed decision, Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon this week and the midterms the week after, plenty of traders were probably selling into strength.
I'm cutting my ES and NQ exposure before Wednesday, when the Fed decision and the Alphabet and Microsoft reports land on the same afternoon.
Brazil's Markets Crash After Lula's Win
Brazil delivered the day's largest shock. Lula beat Flávio Bolsonaro in Sunday's runoff, reversing the first-round result that had drawn investors into Brazilian assets in early October. The real ended more than −10% against the dollar and the Bovespa nearly −17%, Quartz reported. B3, the São Paulo exchange, halted futures trading early in the session and widened the daily price limit to 20%, and the Treasury canceled debt auctions scheduled for October 27 to 29, MercoPress reported.
In New York, the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) closed −19.82%. Broker XP ended at −48.36%, Petrobras's U.S. shares at −13.99% and MercadoLibre at −7.81%. All four recovered from their lows during the day; EWZ had traded near −25% shortly after the open.
The dollar index ended +0.2% at 102.00. The episode is a reminder of how much positioning can build up around one expected election result, a week before the U.S. midterms on November 3.
Fed Week Begins With Rates Steady
Treasury yields barely moved ahead of Wednesday's decision. The 10-year yield ended near 4.99%, down 0.2 basis point, and the 30-year slipped 1.4 basis points to 5.30%. The 2-year yield rose about 3 basis points to 4.71%, according to TheStreet, flattening the curve as traders kept pricing tighter policy in the coming months.
Fed funds futures put the probability of a hike at the October 27-28 meeting at about 10%, and the probability of at least one increase by the December 9 meeting at about 86%, based on settlement prices and the New York Fed's effective rate. CME FedWatch showed a 12.7% chance for October, Reuters reported. The December odds have firmed from about 80% on Friday.
Gold ended +0.41% at $4,024.40 and bitcoin −0.71% at about $79,900. The VIX closed at 18.39 (−5.45%).
Oil eased on diplomacy. Brent settled at $115.81, −$0.91 or −0.8%, and WTI at $101.76, −$1.51 or −1.46%, according to Reuters. Officials from Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan met Iranian leaders in Tehran, and the four countries agreed to keep talking. Losses were limited by Houthi claims of strikes on Saudi pumping stations and Riyadh's airport, which Saudi Arabia did not confirm. Brent had traded more than −$2 earlier in the session.
Around the Market
Tesla led the Magnificent Seven at +5.21% and touched its highest intraday level in more than three months after Barclays upgraded the stock to overweight from equal weight and raised its price target to $450 from $370, Reuters reported. Analyst Dan Levy called a possible merger with SpaceX a key part of the bull case and also pointed to a return to growth in the car business and strong demand for Tesla's energy storage products, according to Yahoo Finance. Both companies' boards have formed special committees to explore a deal. Microsoft closed +1.54% after saying it would offer voluntary buyouts to employees in several countries, including the U.S., according to the Journal's market coverage. Amazon ended +0.44%.
Apple closed −1.10% as early owners of the foldable iPhone Duo reported cracked screens, TechCrunch reported. Alphabet ended at −1.06% ahead of Wednesday's results.
Lockheed Martin closed +5.13% after Morgan Stanley upgraded it to overweight and raised its price target to $835 from $690, pointing to a new F-35 agreement with the Pentagon, CNBC reported. RTX ended +3.39% and Northrop Grumman +2.53%.
EQT agreed to buy Range Resources in an all-stock deal that creates a natural gas producer with a combined enterprise value above $50 billion, according to the companies' announcement. Range closed about +18% and EQT −1.4%.
DoorDash closed −6.10% after the Journal reported the company is in advanced talks to buy Instacart, whose parent Maplebear finished +7.87%. Verizon ended at −3.49%. The carrier raised its full-year guidance and added 406,000 postpaid phone customers, its best third quarter in five years, according to its earnings release, but third-quarter revenue of $34.3 billion came in below estimates.
After the close, Whirlpool traded about −8.5% in extended trading after forecasting a full-year loss, and JetBlue +9.7% after reporting revenue growth, according to the Journal. JetBlue had closed at a record low for a third straight session.
What's Next
The busiest stretch of the earnings season starts on Tuesday. Coca-Cola, UPS, Boeing, S&P Global and HCA Healthcare report before the open. Visa, Seagate, NXP Semiconductors and Robinhood follow after the close. The Fed's two-day meeting begins, and Israel holds its national election.
Wednesday carries the most weight for the AI trade. The Fed announces its decision at 2 p.m. ET, with Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference at 2:30. GE Vernova, Vertiv and Boston Scientific report in the morning, and Oracle hosts its investor day. After the close, Alphabet and Microsoft report, along with ServiceNow, KLA, T-Mobile and Equinix. Cloud growth, capital spending guidance and free cash flow will decide whether Monday's rebound lasts.
On Thursday, the government releases its first estimate of third-quarter GDP and September personal income and spending, which includes the PCE price index. Eli Lilly, Mastercard, Merck, Caterpillar and Linde report before the open, and Amazon, Intel, Sandisk, Starbucks and Coinbase after the close. Friday brings Exxon Mobil, Chevron, AbbVie and General Dynamics.
Bottom Line
Anthropic's filing gave investors the first audited look at what a frontier AI lab earns for each dollar of compute, and the answer was better than the AI bears had assumed. Chipmakers — the suppliers of that compute — took most of the gain.
The rest of the day showed why the rebound stayed narrow. Meta is turning to its shareholders for funding, Musk is predicting a shakeout among the smaller AI clouds, and Brazil showed how quickly crowded positioning can unwind.
Alphabet and Microsoft report on Wednesday, a few hours after the Fed decides. Their free cash flow, more than their revenue growth, will show whether the spending can keep up without more stock sales like Meta's.
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